[ { "key": "6AREUNIN", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/6AREUNIN", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/6AREUNIN", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/44N73TVS", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "6AREUNIN", "version": 1, "parentItem": "44N73TVS", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-23T00:14:42Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=74407507&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:54:01Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:54:01Z" } }, { "key": "44N73TVS", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/44N73TVS", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/44N73TVS", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Pettorelli et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-09", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "44N73TVS", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Tracking the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning using protected areas: Africa as a case study", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Nathalie", "lastName": "Pettorelli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Aliénor L.M.", "lastName": "Chauvenet" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "James P.", "lastName": "Duffy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "William A.", "lastName": "Cornforth" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Alizée", "lastName": "Meillere" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jonathan E.M.", "lastName": "Baillie" } ], "abstractNote": "Abstract: Protected areas represent important core ‘units’ for in situ conservation. However, the current static system is at risk from the effects of global environmental change. This is especially true in Africa, a biodiversity-rich continent expected to be hit hard by climate change. Focusing on African protected areas that experience limited human impact (International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I and II), we tested three hypotheses regarding the impact of climate change on the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP). We expected a lower annual NPP and higher seasonality in NPP in Eastern and Southern Africa; changes in NPP dynamics to coincide with changes in precipitation; no correlation between changes in NPP dynamics and human development. To test these expectations, we used the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an index of NPP. Results show that, between 1982 and 2008, an increased vegetation greenness was observed in 27% of the protected areas monitored (mostly in Western Africa), and an increased seasonality in 9% of them (mostly in Eastern and Southern Africa). Our results lend support to current expectations regarding the impacts of climate change, and demonstrate how protected areas of IUCN categories I and II could be used to track the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning in Africa, and possibly elsewhere. The study highlights the need for a dynamic approach to conservation, where the relevance and efficiency of management actions need to be regularly evaluated. It also demonstrates that satellite-based approaches offer a cheap, verifiable way to quickly identify protected areas of concern at a global scale, supporting managers in their effort to design and apply adaptive management strategies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]", "publicationTitle": "Ecological Indicators", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "September 2012", "volume": "20", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "269-276", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Ecological Indicators", "DOI": "10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.02.014", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1470160X", "archive": "a9h", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Tracking the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning using protected areas", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "62851046", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:54:01Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:54:01Z" } }, { "key": "6VFZMTIK", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/6VFZMTIK", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/6VFZMTIK", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/CMIT3S9J", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "6VFZMTIK", "version": 1, "parentItem": "CMIT3S9J", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-22T23:30:02Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=76913791&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:50Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:50Z" } }, { "key": "CMIT3S9J", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/CMIT3S9J", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/CMIT3S9J", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Schilling et al.", "parsedDate": "2012", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "CMIT3S9J", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation in North Africa with focus on Morocco", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Janpeter", "lastName": "Schilling" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Korbinian P.", "lastName": "Freier" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Elke", "lastName": "Hertig" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jürgen", "lastName": "Scheffran" } ], "abstractNote": "Abstract: Our study links environmental impacts of climate change to major socio-economic and agricultural developments in North Africa. We jointly investigate climate projections, vulnerability, impacts, and options for adaptation. Precipitation in North Africa is likely to decrease between 10 and 20%, while temperatures are likely to rise between 2 and 3°C by 2050. This trend is most pronounced in the north-western parts of northern Africa as our own model results suggest. The combination of decreasing supply and strong population growth aggravates the stressed water situation in the region. We further compare the vulnerabilities, adaptive capacities and conflict implications of climate change in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. Climate change will likely have the strongest effect on Morocco where the agricultural sector is of high importance for the country''s economy and particularly for poor people. Our analysis of climate impacts and adaptation options in Morocco suggests that the agricultural incentives used in the past are inadequate to buffer drought effects. To increase resilience against climate change, agricultural policies should shift from maximizing agricultural output to stabilizing it. Our bio-economic model results further suggest a considerable potential of replacing firewood by electric energy to sustain pastoral productivity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]", "publicationTitle": "Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012", "volume": "156", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "12-26", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment", "DOI": "10.1016/j.agee.2012.04.021", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "01678809", "archive": "a9h", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "76913791", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:50Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:50Z" } }, { "key": "ATX3JPT7", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/ATX3JPT7", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/ATX3JPT7", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/6MIU98BJ", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "ATX3JPT7", "version": 1, "parentItem": "6MIU98BJ", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-23T00:10:12Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=69843492&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:44Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:44Z" } }, { "key": "6MIU98BJ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/6MIU98BJ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/6MIU98BJ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Rulinda et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-03", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "6MIU98BJ", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Characterising and quantifying vegetative drought in East Africa using fuzzy modelling and NDVI data", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.M.", "lastName": "Rulinda" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Dilo" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Bijker" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Stein" } ], "abstractNote": "Abstract: This study aims at improving the characterisation and quantification of vegetative drought as a vague spatial phenomenon. 10-day NOAA-AVHRR NDVI images of East Africa from September 2005 to April 2006 are used. Vegetative drought is characterised using a membership function to model the gradual transition between drought and non-drought classes. Measures are implemented to quantify the areas and vagueness of vegetative drought, and to visualise its evolution in space and time. Results show a severe drought, affecting more than 60% of the vegetated area in the region. Different degrees of vagueness are observed in time, independently of the change of the transition range; the vagueness remains higher at the onset than at the termination of drought, reflecting a more gradual movement to drought and a crisper return to normal conditions. The vagueness was the lowest at the drought peak. The mean-area is less vulnerable to the change of the transition range, compared to the core-area. A Crisp approach, using the median of the transition range as the threshold value, does not quantify the vagueness of vegetative drought. This method can also be used in other regions, or adapted to characterise and quantify other vague spatial phenomena. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Arid Environments", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "March 2012", "volume": "78", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "169-178", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Journal of Arid Environments", "DOI": "10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.11.016", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "01401963", "archive": "a9h", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "69843492", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:44Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:44Z" } }, { "key": "G6GM9GQF", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/G6GM9GQF", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/G6GM9GQF", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/XQ5WWRRC", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "G6GM9GQF", "version": 1, "parentItem": "XQ5WWRRC", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-23T00:10:12Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=76494352&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:40Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:40Z" } }, { "key": "XQ5WWRRC", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/XQ5WWRRC", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/XQ5WWRRC", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Vicente-Serrano et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-05", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "XQ5WWRRC", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa: The potential use of geospatial data and drought information systems", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Sergio M.", "lastName": "Vicente-Serrano" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Santiago", "lastName": "Beguería" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Luis", "lastName": "Gimeno" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Lars", "lastName": "Eklundh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gregory", "lastName": "Giuliani" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Derek", "lastName": "Weston" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ahmed", "lastName": "El Kenawy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Juan I.", "lastName": "López-Moreno" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Raquel", "lastName": "Nieto" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Tenalem", "lastName": "Ayenew" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Diawoye", "lastName": "Konte" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jonas", "lastName": "Ardö" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Geoffrey G.S.", "lastName": "Pegram" } ], "abstractNote": "Abstract: Understanding, monitoring and mitigating drought is a very difficult task as a consequence of the intrinsic nature of the phenomenon. In addition, assessing the impact of drought on ecosystems and societies is also a complex task, because the same drought severity may have different consequences in different regions and systems due to the underlying vulnerabilities. New technologies based on geospatial information are available to determine the risk and vulnerability of a system to a drought and to develop monitoring and early warning systems based on real-time information to support decision making. To improve drought preparedness and mitigation, geospatial datasets based on climate information, Earth Observation Systems and statistical and dynamical modelling methodologies can make a noticeably difference in mitigating drought impacts in Africa. In this article we illustrate how the development of drought information systems based on geospatial technology, that combines static and real-time information, could improve the possibilities of drought mitigation in Africa. We stress that it is necessary to go beyond past attempts to manage drought risk based on a reactive crisis-response approach, by promoting drought mitigation and preparedness at the national and regional levels. For this purpose the development of drought information tools is fundamental for the implementation of drought management plans and to support real-time decision-making. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]", "publicationTitle": "Applied Geography", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "May 2012", "volume": "34", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "471-486", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Applied Geography", "DOI": "10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.02.001", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "01436228", "archive": "a9h", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "58650887", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:53:40Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:53:40Z" } }, { "key": "VH5DTIIG", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/VH5DTIIG", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/VH5DTIIG", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/V7EBMXSE", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "VH5DTIIG", "version": 1, "parentItem": "V7EBMXSE", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "JSTOR Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z", "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3182647.pdf?acceptTC=true", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/MKT25TNI" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z" } }, { "key": "V7EBMXSE", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/V7EBMXSE", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/V7EBMXSE", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Ramankutty et al.", "parsedDate": "2002", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "V7EBMXSE", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "The Global Distribution of Cultivable Lands: Current Patterns and Sensitivity to Possible Climate Change", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Navin", "lastName": "Ramankutty" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jonathan A.", "lastName": "Foley" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "John", "lastName": "Norman" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Kevin", "lastName": "McSweeney" } ], "abstractNote": "Aim: This study makes quantitative global estimates of land suitability for cultivation based on climate and soil constraints. It evaluates further the sensitivity of croplands to any possible changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Location: The location is global, geographically explicit. Methods: The methods used are spatial data synthesis and analysis and numerical modelling. Results: There is a cropland 'reserve' of 120%, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. Our climate sensitivity analysis indicates that the southern provinces of Canada, north-western and north-central states of the United States, northern Europe, southern Former Soviet Union and the Manchurian plains of China are most sensitive to changes in temperature. The Great Plains region of the United States and north-eastern China are most sensitive to changes in precipitation. The regions that are sensitive to precipitation change are also sensitive to changes in CO2, but the magnitude is small compared to the influence of direct climate change. We estimate that climate change, as simulated by global climate models, will expand cropland suitability by an additional 16%, mainly in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. However, the tropics (mainly Africa, northern South America, Mexico and Central America and Oceania) will experience a small decrease in suitability due to climate change. Main conclusions: There is a large reserve of cultivable croplands, mainly in tropical South America and Africa. However, much of this land is under valuable forests or in protected areas. Furthermore, the tropical soils could potentially lose fertility very rapidly once the forest cover is removed. Regions that lie at the margins of temperature or precipitation limitation to cultivation are most sensitive to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration. It is anticipated that climate change will result in an increase in cropland suitability in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes (mainly in developed nations), while the tropics will lose suitability (mainly in developing nations).", "publicationTitle": "Global Ecology and Biogeography", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2002", "volume": "11", "issue": "5", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "377-392", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/3182647", "accessDate": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1466-822X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "The Global Distribution of Cultivable Lands", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "JSTOR", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "ArticleType: research-article / Full publication date: Sep., 2002 / Copyright © 2002 Wiley-Blackwell", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/BBZPW8B2" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-24T02:19:51Z" } }, { "key": "MI2SS5DK", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/MI2SS5DK", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/MI2SS5DK", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/JSUIKAHH", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "MI2SS5DK", "version": 1, "parentItem": "JSUIKAHH", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T23:06:47Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=79721639&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:06:47Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:06:47Z" } }, { "key": "JSUIKAHH", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/JSUIKAHH", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/JSUIKAHH", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Nelson et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-10", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "JSUIKAHH", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Long-term variability and rainfall control of savanna fire regimes in equatorial East Africa", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "David M.", "lastName": "Nelson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Dirk", "lastName": "Verschuren" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael A.", "lastName": "Urban" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Feng Sheng", "lastName": "Hu" } ], "abstractNote": "Fires burning the vast grasslands and savannas of Africa significantly influence the global carbon cycle. Projecting the impacts of future climate change on fire-mediated biogeochemical processes in these dry tropical ecosystems requires understanding of how various climate factors influence regional fire regimes. To examine climate-vegetation-fire linkages in dry savanna, we conducted macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analysis on the sediments of the past 25 000 years from Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in equatorial East Africa. The charcoal-inferred shifts in local and regional fire regimes were compared with previously published reconstructions of temperature, rainfall, seasonal drought severity, and vegetation dynamics to evaluate millennial-scale drivers of fire occurrence. Our charcoal data indicate that fire in the dry lowland savanna of southeastern Kenya was not fuel-limited during the Last Glacial Maximum ( LGM) and Late Glacial, in contrast to many other regions throughout the world. Fire activity remained high at Lake Challa probably because the relatively high mean-annual temperature (~22 °C) allowed productive C4 grasses with high water-use efficiency to dominate the landscape. From the LGM through the middle Holocene, the relative importance of savanna burning in the region varied primarily in response to changes in rainfall and dry-season length, which were controlled by orbital insolation forcing of tropical monsoon dynamics. The fuel limitation that characterizes the region's fire regime today appears to have begun around 5000-6000 years ago, when warmer interglacial conditions coincided with prolonged seasonal drought. Thus, insolation-driven variation in the amount and seasonality of rainfall during the past 25 000 years altered the immediate controls on fire occurrence in the grass-dominated savannas of eastern equatorial Africa. These results show that climatic impacts on dry-savanna burning are heterogeneous through time, with important implications for efforts to anticipate future shifts in fire-mediated ecosystem processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "Global Change Biology", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "October 2012", "volume": "18", "issue": "10", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "3160-3170", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02766.x", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "13541013", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "79721639", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:06:47Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:06:47Z" } }, { "key": "BKECPJIA", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } 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"linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Full Text", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z", "url": "http://content.ebscohost.com/ContentServer.asp?T=P&P=AN&K=57320739&S=R&D=a9h&EbscoContent=dGJyMMvl7ESep7U40dvuOLCmr0qep7dSrqq4S7GWxWXS&ContentCustomer=dGJyMPGvrkiyqrRMuePfgeyx44Dt6fIA", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/2NCRQ6FB" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z" } }, { "key": "XID7HNFU", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/XID7HNFU", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/XID7HNFU", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/2KM74C2T", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "XID7HNFU", "version": 1, "parentItem": "2KM74C2T", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=57320739&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/JIUTF92K" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z" } }, { "key": "2KM74C2T", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/2KM74C2T", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/2KM74C2T", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Blackwell", "parsedDate": "2010-12", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "2KM74C2T", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "East Africa's Pastoralist Emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back?", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "PJ", "lastName": "Blackwell" } ], "abstractNote": "The global warming trend of climate change is having severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of the Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Care has to be taken in making assertions about the impact of climate change. The biggest effects may come not from lower average rainfall but from a widening of the standard deviation as weather extremes become more frequent. In a region already prone to drought, disease and conflict, climate change, access to modern weapons and new viral livestock diseases are now overwhelming pastoralists' coping capacity and deepening the region's roughly 30-year dependency on famine relief. This article examines the livelihood strategies of the Turkana and several poverty reduction programmes currently established, while addressing the reality that traditional pastoralism may no longer be a viable livelihood option, given the effects of climate change, disease and the ensuing conflict over diminishing resources. The findings conclude that the future for traditional Turkana pastoralists is dismal because they continue to depend on an environment that may no longer support them. Humanitarians are recommended to shift their focus to advocate and invest in alternative livelihood strategies that generate economic independence and help the Turkana adapt to their changing environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of Third World Quarterly is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "Third World Quarterly", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "December 2010", "volume": "31", "issue": "8", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1321-1338", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1080/01436597.2010.541085", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "01436597", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "East Africa's Pastoralist Emergency", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "57320739", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/WQRFEZU2" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:04:39Z" } }, { "key": "WXE452IQ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/WXE452IQ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/WXE452IQ", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/G4W6X8HI", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "WXE452IQ", "version": 1, "parentItem": "G4W6X8HI", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Full Text", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z", "url": "http://content.ebscohost.com/ContentServer.asp?T=P&P=AN&K=70574392&S=R&D=a9h&EbscoContent=dGJyMMvl7ESep7U40dvuOLCmr0qep7dSrqa4SrCWxWXS&ContentCustomer=dGJyMPGvrkiyqrRMuePfgeyx44Dt6fIA", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z" } }, { "key": "G4W6X8HI", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/G4W6X8HI", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/G4W6X8HI", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Ermert et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-01", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "G4W6X8HI", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "The Impact of Regional Climate Change on Malaria Risk due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Africa", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Volker", "lastName": "Ermert" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andreas H.", "lastName": "Fink" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andrew P.", "lastName": "Morse" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Heiko", "lastName": "Paeth" } ], "abstractNote": "Background: Climate change will probably alter the spread and transmission intensity of malaria in Africa. Objectives: In this study, we assessed potential changes in the malaria transmission via an integrated weather-disease model. Methods: We simulated mosquito biting rates using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the regional model (REMO) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations to incorporate information on the infection rate among children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather-disease model for 2001 to 2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes on climate. Results: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960 to 2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions where malaria is epidemic are located in the Sahel as well as in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected because of simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, the intensity of malaria transmission is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, whereas in the lower-altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease. Conclusions: We project that climate changes driven by greenhouse-gas and land-use changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of areas where malaria is epidemic might have to be significantly altered in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of Environmental Health Perspectives is the property of Superintendent of Documents and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "Environmental Health Perspectives", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "January 2012", "volume": "120", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "77-84", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1289/ehp.1103681", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "00916765", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "70574392", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z" } }, { "key": "HUPZZ54T", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/HUPZZ54T", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/HUPZZ54T", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/G4W6X8HI", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "HUPZZ54T", "version": 1, "parentItem": "G4W6X8HI", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=70574392&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T23:00:28Z" } }, { "key": "75DCTTAC", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/75DCTTAC", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/75DCTTAC", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/E8PTHB3T", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "75DCTTAC", "version": 1, "parentItem": "E8PTHB3T", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T21:43:47Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=74433657&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/ID2W2TG4" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:25Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:25Z" } }, { "key": "E8PTHB3T", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/E8PTHB3T", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/E8PTHB3T", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jaramillo et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-09", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "E8PTHB3T", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Some Like It Hot: The Influence and Implications of Climate Change on Coffee Berry Borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and Coffee Production in East Africa", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Juliana", "lastName": "Jaramillo" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Eric", "lastName": "Muchugu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Fernando E.", "lastName": "Vega" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Aaron", "lastName": "Davis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christian", "lastName": "Borgemeister" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Adenirin", "lastName": "Chabi-Olaye" } ], "abstractNote": "The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar (US) coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most important pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature rise in East Africa: increased damage to coffee crops and expansion in its distribution range have been reported. In order to anticipate threats and prioritize management actions for H. hampei we present here, maps on future distributions of H. hampei in coffee producing areas of East Africa. Using the CLIMEX model we relate present-day insect distributions to current climate and then project the fitted climatic envelopes under future scenarios A2A and B2B (for HADCM3 model). In both scenarios, the situation with H. hampei is forecasted to worsen in the current Coffea arabica producing areas of Ethiopia, the Ugandan part of the Lake Victoria and Mt. Elgon regions, Mt. Kenya and the Kenyan side of Mt. Elgon, and most of Rwanda and Burundi. The calculated hypothetical number of generations per year of H. hampei is predicted to increase in all C. arabica-producing areas from five to ten. These outcomes will have serious implications for C. arabica production and livelihoods in East Africa. We suggest that the best way to adapt to a rise of temperatures in coffee plantations could be via the introduction of shade trees in sun grown plantations. The aims of this study are to fill knowledge gaps existing in the coffee industry, and to draft an outline for the development of an adaptation strategy package for climate change on coffee production. An abstract in Spanish is provided as Abstract S1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of PLoS ONE is the property of Public Library of Science and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "PLoS ONE", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "September 2011", "volume": "6", "issue": "9", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1-14", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1371/journal.pone.0024528", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "19326203", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Some Like It Hot", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "74433657", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/R7AJJ64M" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:25Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:25Z" } }, { "key": "3WU8B7GM", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/3WU8B7GM", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/3WU8B7GM", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Shongwe et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-07-15", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "3WU8B7GM", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II: East Africa", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mxolisi E.", "lastName": "Shongwe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Geert Jan", "lastName": "van Oldenborgh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Bart", "lastName": "van den Hurk" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Maarten", "lastName": "van Aalst" } ], "abstractNote": "Probable changes in mean and extreme precipitation in East Africa are estimated from general circulation models (GCMs) prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Bayesian statistics are used to derive the relative weights assigned to each member in the multimodel ensemble. There is substantial evidence in support of a positive shift of the whole rainfall distribution in East Africa during the wet seasons. The models give indications for an increase in mean precipitation rates and intensity of high rainfall events but for less severe droughts. Upward precipitation trends are projected from early this (twenty first) century. As in the observations, a statistically significant link between sea surface temperature gradients in the tropical Indian Ocean and short rains (October--December) in East Africa is simulated in the GCMs. Furthermore, most models project a differential warming of the Indian Ocean during boreal autumn. This is favorable for an increase in the probability of positive Indian Ocean zonal mode events, which have been associated with anomalously strong short rains in East Africa. On top of the general increase in rainfall in the tropics due to thermodynamic effects, a change in the structure of the Eastern Hemisphere Walker circulation is consistent with an increase in East Africa precipitation relative to other regions within the same latitudinal belt. A notable feature of this change is a weakening of the climatological subsidence over eastern Kenya. East Africa is shown to be a region in which a coherent projection of future precipitation change can be made, supported by physical arguments. Although the rate of change is still uncertain, almost all results point to a wetter climate with more intense wet seasons and less severe droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of Journal of Climate is the property of American Meteorological Society and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Climate", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "July 15, 2011", "volume": "24", "issue": "14", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "3718-3733", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1175/2010JCLI2883.1", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "08948755", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Projected Changes in Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Africa under Global Warming. Part II", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "62851035", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:23Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:23Z" } }, { "key": "SJENRH8F", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/SJENRH8F", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/SJENRH8F", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/3WU8B7GM", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "SJENRH8F", "version": 1, "parentItem": "3WU8B7GM", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T21:46:26Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=62851035&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:23Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:23Z" } }, { "key": "3CMPV6SX", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/3CMPV6SX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/3CMPV6SX", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/VTCBSG8T", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "3CMPV6SX", "version": 1, "parentItem": "VTCBSG8T", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "EBSCO Record", "accessDate": "2012-09-17T21:48:36Z", "url": "https://login.watzekpx.lclark.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=a9h&AN=55113662&site=ehost-live&scope=site&scope=cite", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/9P4X39XS" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:22Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:22Z" } }, { "key": "VTCBSG8T", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 89435, "name": "Climate change in 3rd world communities", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/89435/items/VTCBSG8T", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_in_3rd_world_communities/items/VTCBSG8T", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 911304, "username": "ktibbett", "name": "Kyle Tibbett", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ktibbett", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Ifejika Speranza", "parsedDate": "2010-12", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "VTCBSG8T", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Drought Coping and Adaptation Strategies: Understanding Adaptations to Climate Change in Agro-pastoral Livestock Production in Makueni District, Kenya", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Chinwe", "lastName": "Ifejika Speranza" } ], "abstractNote": "Using drought as a lens, this article analyses how agro-pastoralists in Makueni district, Kenya adapt their livestock production to climate variability and change. Data were collected from a longitudinal survey of 127 agro-pastoral households. Approximately one-third of the households have inadequate feeds, and livestock diseases are major challenges during non-drought and drought periods. Agro-pastoralists' responses to drought are reactive and mainly involve intensifying exploitation of resources and the commons. Proactive responses such as improving production resources are few. Poverty, limited responses to market dynamics and inadequate skills constrain adaptations. Many agro-pastoralists' attachment to livestock deters livestock divestment, favouring disadvantageous sales that result in declining incomes. To improve adaptive capacity, interventions should expose agro-pastoralists to other forms of savings, incorporate agro-pastoralists as agents of change by building their capacity to provide extension services, and maintain infrastructure. Securing livestock mobility, pasture production and access is crucial under the variable social-ecological conditions.En se servant de la sécheresse comme point de départ, cet article analyse comment les agro-pastoralistes du district de Makueni au Kenya adaptent leurs moyens de subsistance à la variabilité et au changement climatiques. Il s′appuie sur des données issues d′une enquête longitudinale auprès de 127 ménages agro-pastoraux. Environ un tiers des ménages ont des animaux mal nourris, et l′état de santé du bétail est un problème majeur aussi bien en temps de sécheresse qu′en absence de sècheresse. Les actions adoptées par les éleveurs en réponse à la sécheresse sont réactives et consistent essentiellement en une intensification de l′exploitation des ressources et des biens communaux, et peu en des mesures pro-actives telles que l′amélioration des ressources de production. La pauvreté de ces populations, leurs réponses imparfaites aux dynamiques de marché et leur manque de compétences limitent leur capacité d′adaptation. Le fort attachement de nombreux éleveurs au bétail les empêche de se désengager de l′élevage; ceci mène à des ventes de bétail défavorables aux éleveurs et entraîne un déclin de leurs revenus. Afin d′améliorer leur capacité d′adaptation, des interventions devraient être entreprises pour exposer les agro-pastoralistes à d′autres formes d′épargne. En outre, la capacité des éleveurs à fournir des services de vulgarisation agricole et à maintenir les infrastructures doit être développée. Dans un contexte de variabilité socio-écologique, il est crucial d′assurer la mobilité du bétail, ainsi que la production de pâturages et leur accessibilité. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]\nCopyright of European Journal of Development Research is the property of Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)", "publicationTitle": "European Journal of Development Research", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "December 2010", "volume": "22", "issue": "5", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "623-642", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1057/ejdr.2010.39", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "09578811", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Drought Coping and Adaptation Strategies", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "EBSCOhost", "callNumber": "55113662", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/45298/items/7A9UCH8T" }, "dateAdded": "2012-09-17T22:15:22Z", "dateModified": "2012-09-17T22:15:22Z" } } ]