[ { "key": "G75UE2MA", "version": 5, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/G75UE2MA", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/G75UE2MA", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271920, "username": "dgnavarro", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/dgnavarro", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Milera", "parsedDate": "2011-06", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "G75UE2MA", "version": 5, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Cambio climático, afectaciones y oportunidades para la ganadería en Cuba", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Milagros de", "lastName": "Milera" } ], "abstractNote": "Los fenómenos de la desertificación y la degradación de las tierras, la contaminación de las aguas, los suelos y la atmósfera, la pérdida de la diversidad biológica, el agotamiento de la capa de ozono, la deforestación, el recalentamiento del planeta y otros, han conducido a una encrucijada de la existencia humana. El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar la adecuación de los principales sistemas de producción ante las afectaciones del cambio climático en Cuba y los resultados de fincas diversificadas que emplean alimentos locales y se han convertido en un recurso, por su contribución para mitigarlo. Se exponen las principales afectaciones ocurri-das por el cambio climático y la caracterización del período 2000-2010 en la ganadería en el país. También se presentan los principales retos de los sistemas agroforestales y los resultados productivos de cuando se emplean recursos fitogenéticos herbáceos y arbóreos en diferentes sistemas de producción ganadera, así como las propuestas de sistemas resilientes de alimentación basados en los recursos fitogenéticos forrajeros herbáceos y arbóreos que deben utilizarse como resultado de la innovación tecnológica en las áreas ganaderas.", "publicationTitle": "Pastos y Forrajes", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "April-June, 2011", "volume": "34", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "127-144", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&pid=S0864-03942011000200001&lng=es&nrm=iso&tlng=en", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0864-0394", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "IMF275HT" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2013-05-27T17:34:05Z", "dateModified": "2013-05-27T17:34:05Z" } }, { "key": "S7VAGCKF", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/S7VAGCKF", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/S7VAGCKF", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/I592TVZQ", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "S7VAGCKF", "version": 1, "parentItem": "I592TVZQ", "itemType": "note", "note": "

Este artículo de revisión evalúa los métodos de reducción de escala (downscaling methods) existentes en la literatura, examinando específicamente aquellos desarrollados para la estimación de impactos hidrológicos. La revisión se centra en los estudios que abordan nuevos conceptos y ventajas en la reducción de escala para la evaluación de impacto hidrológico, particularmente en aquellos que consideran la cuantificación de las incertidumbres en la estimación del impacto del cambio climático.

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Propuesta de método para la evaluación sistemática de la utilidad de las simulaciones de escenarios de cambio climático para el análisis de impacto hidrológico, basado principalmente en el \"criterio de experto\" y un sistema de indicadores que considera los diferentes aspectos y propiedades de los escenarios climáticos regionales, y los diferentes requisitos de los diferentes tipo de estudios hidrológicos. Asimismo, se presenta un ejemplo de aplicación de la metodología propuesta para el sur de Alemania.

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Simulacion de escenarios de la escorrentía de ríos para 6 cuencas de las principales regiones climáticas de Suecia, conciderando incertidumbres en la estimación de la evapotranspiración en el ciclo hidrológico (evapotranspiracion como componente crítico del modelo hidrometeorológico al intrudcir el cambio climático)

", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/M8Q724SE" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "2KTKSZTZ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/2KTKSZTZ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/2KTKSZTZ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Bronstert et al.", "parsedDate": "2007-10-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "2KTKSZTZ", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Comparison and evaluation of regional climate scenarios for hydrological impact analysis: General scheme and application example", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Axel", "lastName": "Bronstert" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Vassilios", "lastName": "Kolokotronis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Daniel", "lastName": "Schwandt" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Helmut", "lastName": "Straub" } ], "abstractNote": "We present a scheme and application example for evaluating simulations of possible future conditions of regional climate (‘regional climate change scenarios’) concerning their suitability for hydrological impact studies. The procedure is based on expert knowledge about the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on varying hydrological processes and different hydrological catchment status. A method to evaluate regional climate change scenarios for hydrological impact analysis is presented first, which consists basically of a two-step knowledge-based decision and evaluation procedure. The first step (‘climatic evaluation’) evaluates the capability of the climate scenarios to represent regional climate and the plausibility of the future climate conditions. The first step establishes the basis for the second step (‘hydrological evaluation’), which evaluates hydrologically relevant information of the climate scenarios to qualify information about the hydrological processes possibly altered by climate change. From this evaluation of the hydrological processes, an evaluation of regional catchment conditions is derived, such as long-term water availability, drought conditions or floods.\nIn the second part of the paper, this method is applied systematically to three different regional climate change scenarios, which have been provided for south Germany. This evaluation results in different levels of adequacy, depending on the hydrological process under question. In general, processes which are governed by temperature conditions (e.g. evaporation, snowmelt) are evaluated as ‘more useful’ than the processes governed by precipitation characteristics (e.g. runoff generation, floods). All regional climate change scenario methods investigated are of rather limited value for extreme hydrological conditions. The proposed method can serve to systematically evaluate the usefulness of climate change scenarios for hydrological impact analysis. It becomes apparent that regional climate scenarios should only be applied for hydrological application if the spatial-temporal scale of variations of the governing hydrological processes is represented by the scenarios. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society", "publicationTitle": "International Journal of Climatology", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2007/10/01", "volume": "27", "issue": "12", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1579-1594", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/joc.1621", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1621/abstract", "accessDate": "2012-04-10T19:41:56Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1097-0088", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Comparison and evaluation of regional climate scenarios for hydrological impact analysis", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "onlinelibrary.wiley.com", "callNumber": "", "rights": "Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "climate change", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "climate scenarios", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "downscaling", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "droughts", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "floods", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "hydrological impacts", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "regional hydrology", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "6BTSDGP6" ], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/2794ZN9A" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "MZBTIDTX", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/MZBTIDTX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/MZBTIDTX", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/6GK92X6J", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "MZBTIDTX", "version": 1, "parentItem": "6GK92X6J", "itemType": "note", "note": "

El estudio presenta una cuantificación de la incertidumbre debido a la utilización de diferentes Modelos Climáticos Globales (GCMs) para la estimación del impacto en los caudales en California.

", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/CU5CIDHI" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "6GK92X6J", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/6GK92X6J", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/6GK92X6J", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Maurer and Duffy", "parsedDate": "2005", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "6GK92X6J", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E. P", "lastName": "Maurer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. B", "lastName": "Duffy" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Geophys Res Lett", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2005", "volume": "32", "issue": "3", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "L03704", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1029/2004GL021462", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "6BTSDGP6" ], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/BDFVH8G6" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "I592TVZQ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/I592TVZQ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/I592TVZQ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Fowler et al.", "parsedDate": "2007-10-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "I592TVZQ", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H. J", "lastName": "Fowler" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Blenkinsop" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Tebaldi" } ], "abstractNote": "There is now a large published literature on the strengths and weaknesses of downscaling methods for different climatic variables, in different regions and seasons. However, little attention is given to the choice of downscaling method when examining the impacts of climate change on hydrological systems. This review paper assesses the current downscaling literature, examining new developments in the downscaling field specifically for hydrological impacts. Sections focus on the downscaling concept; new methods; comparative methodological studies; the modelling of extremes; and the application to hydrological impacts.\nConsideration is then given to new developments in climate scenario construction which may offer the most potential for advancement within the ‘downscaling for hydrological impacts’ community, such as probabilistic modelling, pattern scaling and downscaling of multiple variables and suggests ways that they can be merged with downscaling techniques in a probabilistic climate change scenario framework to assess the uncertainties associated with future projections. Within hydrological impact studies there is still little consideration given to applied research; how the results can be best used to enable stakeholders and managers to make informed, robust decisions on adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of many uncertainties about the future. It is suggested that there is a need for a move away from comparison studies into the provision of decision-making tools for planning and management that are robust to future uncertainties; with examination and understanding of uncertainties within the modelling system. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society", "publicationTitle": "International Journal of Climatology", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2007/10/01", "volume": "27", "issue": "12", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1547-1578", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/joc.1556", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.1556/abstract", "accessDate": "2012-04-10T19:31:13Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1097-0088", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "onlinelibrary.wiley.com", "callNumber": "", "rights": "Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "climate change", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "comparative studies", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "downscaling", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "extremes", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "hydrological impacts", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "uncertainty", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "6BTSDGP6" ], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/HR5FAAEW" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "9UIP56AQ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/9UIP56AQ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/9UIP56AQ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971301, "username": "CelinaKJ", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/celinakj", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Bergstrom et al.", "parsedDate": "2001", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "9UIP56AQ", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate change impacts on runoff in Sweden-assessments by global climate models, dynamical downscaling and hydrological modelling", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Bergstrom" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B.", "lastName": "Carlsson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Gardelin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Lindstrom" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Pettersson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Rummukainen" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Climate Research", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2001", "volume": "16", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "101–112", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "6BTSDGP6" ], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/74063/items/CEHIX6HT" }, "dateAdded": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-04-10T21:43:27Z" } }, { "key": "TJF7THC4", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 74068, "name": "Cambio Climatico", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/74068/items/TJF7THC4", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/cambio_climatico/items/TJF7THC4", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 971312, "username": "chelito", "name": "Jonathan Alvarado", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/chelito", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jiang et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "TJF7THC4", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Effects of ENSO-linked climate and vegetation on population dynamics of sympatric rodent species in semiarid grasslands of Inner Mongolia, China", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Jiang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T.", "lastName": "Zhao" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Liu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Xu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Yu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "He" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "CJ", "lastName": "Krebs" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Z.", "lastName": "Zhang" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Canadian Journal of Zoology", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "volume": "89", 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