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DFID Systematic Review", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.W.", "lastName": "Knox" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T.M.", "lastName": "Hess" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Daccache" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Perez Ortola" } ], "abstractNote": "In many developing countries, agriculture is the cornerstone of their economy, the basis of economic\ngrowth and the main source of livelihood. But agriculture in the developing world is often cited as\nbeing one of the sectors most vulnerable to climate change. In Africa, for example, the majority of\navailable fresh water is used for agriculture; farming techniques are relatively simple; and much of\nthe continent is already hot and dry. Any changes in precipitation and temperature patterns will thus\nhave major impacts on the viability and yields in crop production. To exacerbate the situation, recent\nstudies warn of an unprecedented confluence of pressures on agriculture – with population growth\nand development driving up global demand for food and competition for land, water and energy\nintensifying as the impacts of climate change starts to take effect. In this context, any strategy to\nenhance agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia needs to ensure that natural resources are\nmanaged sustainably and adapted to climate change.\nIn order to inform policy and practice options, including resource allocation, DFID commissioned\nCranfield University to undertake a Systematic Review (SR) of the impacts of climate change on crop\nproductivity in Africa and South Asia. This report summarises that review, and provides a detailed\naccount of the protocol and methodology, data collection, meta-analyses and synthesis. The project\ncommenced in June 2010 and was completed in March 2011.\nThe review focussed on eight food crops, namely rice, wheat maize, sorghum, millet, cassava, yam,\nplantain and sugarcane, which collectively account for over 80% of total agricultural production in\nAfrica and South Asia. A protocol was produced detailing the methodology; search strategy and\nsearch terms; study inclusion criteria; database sources; and approaches for data synthesis and\npresentation. For this, the authors followed the Guidelines for Systematic Reviews in Environmental\nManagement developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation (CEBC) (CEE, 2010). After\ncompleting the searches of published and grey literature, 1144 sources were identified. These were\nultimately filtered down to 53 based on title and abstract screening (representing 257 observations).\nFor each crop and region, data were extracted on the projected impacts of climate change on crop\nproductivity (principally yield) expressed as a yield “variation” (that is projected yield for the given\nfuture scenario as a percentage of current, or baseline, yield). The review was constrained to studies\nusing bio-physical models for impact assessment rather than statistical sensitivity analyses. Following\nan initial scoping, a narrative synthesis with quantitative evidence was proposed. Various metaanalyses were subsequently undertaken, although the results need to be interpreted with caution\ngiven the wide range of ‘effect modifiers’. These include, for example, the use of different general\ncirculation models (GCM), downscaling approaches, emissions scenarios, crop varieties, husbandry\ntechniques, agro-ecological conditions and reported scale of enquiry (local to regional). The reported\nyield variations thus inevitably include both the potential impacts of climate change as well as the\neffect of many other factors implicit in the studies.\nNotwithstanding these limitations, the key findings are summarised by for all crops, and by region\nbelow.", "reportNumber": "", "reportType": "", "institution": "Cranfield University", "place": "", "date": "2011-03-31", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesNumber": "", "pages": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Systematic Review" }, { "tag": "climate" }, { "tag": "crop productivity" }, { "tag": "food" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2011-11-21T17:01:43Z", "dateModified": "2011-11-21T17:01:43Z" } }, { "key": "CW8UEU9S", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 59402, "name": 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