[ { "key": "IVSKPP3C", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/IVSKPP3C", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/IVSKPP3C", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 665086, "username": "Subita Pradhan", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/subita_pradhan", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Power et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-08-14", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "IVSKPP3C", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Power" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "F.", "lastName": "Mayle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Bartlein" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Marlon" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Anderson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Behling" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K.", "lastName": "Brown" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Carcaillet" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Colombaroli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Gavin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Hallett" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Horn" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Kennedy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Lane" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Long" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Moreno" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Paitre" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Robinson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Z.", "lastName": "Taylor" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Walsh" } ], "abstractNote": "The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after ad 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-ad 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.", "publicationTitle": "The Holocene", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-08-14", "volume": "23", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "3-13", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1177/0959683612450196", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0959683612450196", "accessDate": "2012-12-21T18:05:04Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0959-6836, 1477-0911", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0003", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-12-21T18:05:24Z", "dateModified": "2013-01-16T17:18:47Z" } }, { "key": "97782IN5", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/97782IN5", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/97782IN5", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 665086, "username": "Subita Pradhan", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/subita_pradhan", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Vanniere et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-01-25", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "97782IN5", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Circum-Mediterranean fire activity and climate changes during the mid-Holocene environmental transition (8500-2500 cal. BP)", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B.", "lastName": "Vanniere" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. J.", "lastName": "Power" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N.", "lastName": "Roberts" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Tinner" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Carrion" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Magny" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Bartlein" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Colombaroli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A. L.", "lastName": "Daniau" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Finsinger" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Gil-Romera" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Kaltenrieder" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Pini" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Sadori" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Turner" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Valsecchi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Vescovi" } ], "abstractNote": "A mid- to late-Holocene synthesis of fire activity from the Mediterranean basin explores the linkages among fire, climate variability and seasonality through several climatic and ecological transitions. Regional fire histories were created from 36 radiocarbon-dated sedimentary charcoal records, available from the Global Charcoal Database. During the mid-Holocene ‘Thermal Maximum’ around 7500—4500 cal. BP, charcoal records from the northern Mediterranean suggest an increase in fire while records from the southern Mediterranean indicate a decrease associated with wetter-than-present summers. A North—South partition between 40° and 43°N latitude is apparent in the central and western Mediterranean. Relatively abrupt changes in fire activity are observed c. 5500—5000 cal. BP. Records of Holocene fire activity appear sensitive to both orbitally forced climate changes and shorter-lived excursions which may be related to North Atlantic cold events, possibly modulated by an NAO-like climate mechanism. In cases where human—fire interactions have been documented, the regional coherency between fire occurrence and climate forcing suggests a dominant fire—climate relationship during the early—mid Holocene. The human influence on regional fire activity became increasingly important after c. 4000—3000 cal. BP. Results also suggest that: (1) teleconnections between the Mediterranean area and other climatic regions, in particular the North Atlantic and the low latitudes monsoon areas, influenced past fire activity; (2) gradual forcing, such as changes in orbital parameters, may have triggered abrupt shifts in fire activity; (3) regional fire reconstructions contradict former notions of a gradual (mid- to late-Holocene) aridification of the entire region due to climate and/or human activities and the importance of shorter-term events; (4) Mediterranean fire activity appears hightly sensitive to climate dynamics and thus could be considerably impacted by future climate changes.", "publicationTitle": "The Holocene", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-01-25", "volume": "21", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "53-73", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1177/0959683610384164", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0959683610384164", "accessDate": "2012-12-21T18:35:08Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0959-6836, 1477-0911", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0017", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "wts" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-12-21T18:35:43Z", "dateModified": "2013-01-16T17:18:44Z" } }, { "key": "THR7UHJW", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/THR7UHJW", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/THR7UHJW", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Power et al.", "parsedDate": "2007-12-14", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "THR7UHJW", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum: an assessment based on a global synthesis and analysis of charcoal data", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. J.", "lastName": "Power" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Marlon" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N.", "lastName": "Ortiz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. J.", "lastName": "Bartlein" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S. P.", "lastName": "Harrison" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "F. E.", "lastName": "Mayle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Ballouche" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R. H. W.", "lastName": "Bradshaw" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Carcaillet" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Cordova" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Mooney" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. I.", "lastName": "Moreno" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "I. C.", "lastName": "Prentice" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K.", "lastName": "Thonicke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Tinner" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Whitlock" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Y.", "lastName": "Zhang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Y.", "lastName": "Zhao" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A. A.", "lastName": "Ali" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R. S.", "lastName": "Anderson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Beer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Behling" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Briles" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K. J.", "lastName": "Brown" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Brunelle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Bush" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Camill" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G. Q.", "lastName": "Chu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Clark" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Colombaroli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Connor" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.-L.", "lastName": "Daniau" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Daniels" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Dodson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Doughty" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. E.", "lastName": "Edwards" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Finsinger" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Foster" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Frechette" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.-J.", "lastName": "Gaillard" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D. G.", "lastName": "Gavin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Gobet" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Haberle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D. J.", "lastName": "Hallett" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Higuera" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Hope" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Horn" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Inoue" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Kaltenrieder" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Kennedy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Z. C.", "lastName": "Kong" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Larsen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C. J.", "lastName": "Long" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Lynch" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E. A.", "lastName": "Lynch" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "McGlone" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Meeks" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Mensing" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Meyer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T.", "lastName": "Minckley" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Mohr" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D. M.", "lastName": "Nelson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "New" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Newnham" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Noti" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Oswald" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Pierce" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. J. H.", "lastName": "Richard" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Rowe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. F.", "lastName": "Sanchez Goñi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B. N.", "lastName": "Shuman" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Takahara" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Toney" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Turney" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D. H.", "lastName": "Urrego-Sanchez" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Umbanhowar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Vandergoes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B.", "lastName": "Vanniere" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Vescovi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Walsh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "X.", "lastName": "Wang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N.", "lastName": "Williams" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Wilmshurst" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. H.", "lastName": "Zhang" } ], "abstractNote": "Fire activity has varied globally and continuously since the last glacial maximum (LGM) in response to long-term changes in global climate and shorter-term regional changes in climate, vegetation, and human land use. We have synthesized sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning since the LGM and present global maps showing changes in fire activity for time slices during the past 21,000 years (as differences in charcoal accumulation values compared to pre-industrial). There is strong broad-scale coherence in fire activity after the LGM, but spatial heterogeneity in the signals increases thereafter. In North America, Europe and southern South America, charcoal records indicate less-than-present fire activity during the deglacial period, from 21,000 to ∼11,000 cal yr BP. In contrast, the tropical latitudes of South America and Africa show greater-than-present fire activity from ∼19,000 to ∼17,000 cal yr BP and most sites from Indochina and Australia show greater-than-present fire activity from 16,000 to ∼13,000 cal yr BP. Many sites indicate greater-than-present or near-present activity during the Holocene with the exception of eastern North America and eastern Asia from 8,000 to ∼3,000 cal yr BP, Indonesia and Australia from 11,000 to 4,000 cal yr BP, and southern South America from 6,000 to 3,000 cal yr BP where fire activity was less than present. Regional coherence in the patterns of change in fire activity was evident throughout the post-glacial period. These complex patterns can largely be explained in terms of large-scale climate controls modulated by local changes in vegetation and fuel load.\n\nKeywords Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction - Biomass burning - Palaeofire regimes - Charcoal - Data-model comparisons", "publicationTitle": "Climate Dynamics", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2007-12-14", "volume": "30", "issue": "7-8", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "887-907", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1007/s00382-007-0334-x", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.springerlink.com/index/10.1007/s00382-007-0334-x", "accessDate": "2012-05-15T15:19:12Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0930-7575, 1432-0894", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Changes in fire regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "wts" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-12-21T18:35:57Z", "dateModified": "2012-12-21T18:35:57Z" } }, { "key": "TRUDIJ4S", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/TRUDIJ4S", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/TRUDIJ4S", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 159830, "username": "bkim", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/bkim", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Lorenz", "parsedDate": "1967", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "TRUDIJ4S", "version": 1, "itemType": "book", "title": "The nature and theory of the general circulation of the atmosphere", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Edward N.", "lastName": "Lorenz" } ], "abstractNote": "no abstract", "series": "Issue 218 of World Meteorological Organization publications", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "1st edition", "date": "1967", "publisher": "World Meteorological Organization", "place": "Geneva, Switzerland", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "numPages": "161 p.", "ISBN": "ASIN: B0006CHWHG", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.math.nyu.edu/~gerber/courses/2011-fruhling/lorenz-WMO-1967-part1.pdf", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2011-08-30T18:37:58Z", "dateModified": "2012-06-05T15:44:26Z" } }, { "key": "R22CKSKF", "version": 2, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/R22CKSKF", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/R22CKSKF", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Roos and Swetnam", "parsedDate": "2011-11-24", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "R22CKSKF", "version": 2, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "A 1416-year reconstruction of annual, multidecadal, and centennial variability in area burned for ponderosa pine forests of the southern Colorado Plateau region, Southwest USA", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C. I.", "lastName": "Roos" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T. W.", "lastName": "Swetnam" } ], "abstractNote": "Fire history reconstructions from fire scars in tree rings have been valuable for assessing fire regime changes and their climatic controls. It has been asserted, however, that these two- to four-century long records from the western USA are unrepresentative of longer periods of the Holocene and are of limited use for understanding current or future fire regimes. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (800–1300 ce) is often suggested as a better analog for future Southwestern US climates but is beyond the chronological range of most fire-scar studies in this region. To evaluate fire regime changes over the past millennium, we build on centennial-length fire–climate studies to generate a 1416 year long reconstruction of fire activity in ponderosa pine forests of the Southern Colorado Plateau region of Arizona and New Mexico. We used a split-period calibration and verification protocol to test the reliability of a multiple regression model using annual and antecedent precipitation (reconstructed from tree-ring width chronologies) to predict the percentage of fire-scar localities (i.e. sites, N=45) that recorded extensive fires within those sites (>25% of recorder trees scarred) each year between 1700 and 1899 ce. The model explains approximately 50% of the variation in annual fire activity. Applying the model to the entire precipitation reconstruction provides a proxy for annual area burned since 572 ce. There are no statistically significant differences between the period available for fire-scar study (1600 ce–present) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (800–1300 ce) in terms of predicted annual area burned or the frequencies of regional fire years. Multidecadal and centennial variation in the frequencies of regional fire years, however, does indicate reduced surface fire frequencies from approximately 700–800 ce and 1360–1455ce. We hypothesize that these were periods when some forests were vulnerable to altered canopy structure, accumulated fuels, and increased fire severity.", "publicationTitle": "The Holocene", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-11-24", "volume": "22", "issue": "3", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "281-290", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1177/0959683611423694", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://hol.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/0959683611423694", "accessDate": "2012-05-17T15:53:05Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0959-6836, 1477-0911", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "wts" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-17T15:54:29Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-18T18:24:29Z" } }, { "key": "734JGVV8", "version": 2, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/734JGVV8", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/734JGVV8", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Kang and Cressie", "parsedDate": "2012", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "734JGVV8", "version": 2, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Bayesian Hierarchical ANOVA of Regional Climate-Change Projections from NARCCAP Phase II", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily L.", "lastName": "Kang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Noel", "lastName": "Cressie" } ], "abstractNote": "We consider current (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) average seasonal surface temperature fields from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (GCM) in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Phase II experiment. We analyze the difference between future and current temperature fields for each RCM and include the factor of season, the factor of RCM, and their interaction in a two-way ANOVA model. Noticing that classical ANOVA approaches do not account for spatial dependence, we assume that the main effects and interactions are spatial processes that follow the Spatial Random Effects (SRE) model. This enables us to model the spatial variability through fixed spatial basis functions, and the computations associated with an ANOVA of high-resolution RCM outputs can be carried out without having to resort to approximations. We call the resulting model a spatial two-way ANOVA model. We implement it in a Bayesian framework, and we investigate the variability of climate-change projections over seasons, RCMs, and their interactions. We find that projected temperatures in North America are credibly higher, that the associated warming effects differ in spatial areas and in seasons, and that they are of much larger magnitude than the variability between RCMs.", "publicationTitle": "International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2/2012", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1016/j.jag.2011.12.007", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0303243411002017", "accessDate": "2012-05-17T16:09:35Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "03032434", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0001", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "wts" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-17T16:10:19Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-18T18:24:28Z" } }, { "key": "NWR9VEBB", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/NWR9VEBB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/NWR9VEBB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Zinck et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "NWR9VEBB", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Understanding Shifts in Wildfire Regimes as Emergent Threshold Phenomena", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Richard D.", "lastName": "Zinck" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mercedes", "lastName": "Pascual" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Volker", "lastName": "Grimm" } ], "abstractNote": "Ecosystems driven by wildfire regimes are characterized by fire size distributions resembling power laws. Existing models produce power laws, but their predicted exponents are too high and fail to capture the exponent’s variation with geographic region. Here we present a minimal model of fire dynamics that describes fire spread as a stochastic birth-death process, analogous to stochastic population growth or disease spread and incorporating memory effects from previous fires. The model reproduces multiple regional patterns in fire regimes and allows us to classify different regions in terms of their proximity to a critical threshold. Transitions across this critical threshold imply abrupt and pronounced increases in average fire size. The model predicts that large regions in Canada are currently close to this transition and might be driven beyond the threshold in the future. We illustrate this point by analyzing the time series for large fires (>199 ha) from the Canadian Boreal Plains, found to have shifted from a subcritical regime to a critical regime in the recent past. By contrast to its predecessor, the model also suggests that a critical transition, and not self-organized criticality, underlies forest fire dynamics, with implications for other ecological systems exhibiting power-law-like patterns, in particular for their sensitivity to environmental change and control efforts.\n\nKeywords: forest fire model, wildfire, threshold phenomena, regime shift, climate change, criticality, self-organized criticality, power-law scalings.", "publicationTitle": "The American Naturalist", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "12/2011", "volume": "178", "issue": "6", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "E149-E161", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1086/662675", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/info/10.1086/662675", "accessDate": "2011-12-19T23:29:15Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "00030147, 15375323", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0001", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:57:14Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:57:14Z" } }, { "key": "8G3R3NZM", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/8G3R3NZM", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/8G3R3NZM", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Zinck et al.", "parsedDate": "2010", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "8G3R3NZM", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Wildfire, landscape diversity and the Drossel-Schwabl model", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.D.", "lastName": "Zinck" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K.", "lastName": "Johst" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Grimm" } ], "abstractNote": "How simple can a model be that still captures essential aspects of wildfire ecosystems at large spatial and temporal scales? The Drossel–Schwabl model (DSM) is a metaphorical forest-fire model developed to reproduce only one pattern of real systems: a frequency distribution of fire sizes resembling a power law. Consequently, and because it appears oversimplified, it remains unclear what bearings the DSM has in reality. Here, we test whether the DSM is capable of reproducing a pattern that was not considered in its design, the hump-shaped relation between the diversity of succession stages and average annual area burnt. We found that the model, once reformulated to represent succession, produces realistic landscape diversity patterns. We investigated four succession scenarios of forest-fire ecosystems in the USA and Canada. In all scenarios, landscape diversity is highest at an intermediate average annual area burnt as predicted by the intermediate disturbance hypothesis. These results show that a model based solely on the dynamics of the fuel mosaic has surprisingly high predictive power with regard to observed statistical properties of wildfire systems at large spatial scales. Parsimonious models, such as the DSM can be used as starting points for systematic development of more structurally realistic but tractable wildfire models. Due to their simplicity they allow analytical approaches that further our understanding under increasing complexity.\n\nKeywords: Wildfire; Landscape ecology; Succession; Diversity; Intermediate disturbance hypothesis; Self-organization; Cellular automaton", "publicationTitle": "Ecological Modelling", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2010", "volume": "221", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "98–105", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "0011", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:57:06Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:57:06Z" } }, { "key": "R5UBQGNX", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/R5UBQGNX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/R5UBQGNX", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Zinck and Grimm", "parsedDate": "2009", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "R5UBQGNX", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Unifying wildfire models from ecology and statistical physics", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.D.", "lastName": "Zinck" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Grimm" } ], "abstractNote": "Understanding the dynamics of wildfire regimes is crucial for both regional forest management and predicting global interactions between fire regimes and climate. Accordingly, spatially explicit modeling of forest fire ecosystems is a very active field of research, including both generic and highly specific models. There is, however, a second field in which wildfire has served as a metaphor for more than 20 years: statistical physics. So far, there has been only limited interaction between these two fields of wildfire modeling. Here we show that two typical generic wildfire models from ecology are structurally equivalent to the most commonly used model from statistical physics. All three models can be unified to a single model in which they appear as special cases of regrowth‐dependent flammability. This local “ecological memory” of former fire events is key to self‐organization in wildfire ecosystems. The unified model is able to reproduce three different patterns observed in real boreal forests: fire size distributions, fire shapes, and a hump‐shaped relationship between disturbance intensity (average annual area burned) and diversity of succession stages. The unification enables us to bring together insights from both disciplines in a novel way and to identify limitations that provide starting points for further research.", "publicationTitle": "The American Naturalist", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2009", "volume": "174", "issue": "5", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "E170–E185", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "0011", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:57:01Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:57:01Z" } }, { "key": "UR2MG7US", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/UR2MG7US", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/UR2MG7US", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Zinck and Grimm", "parsedDate": "2008", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "UR2MG7US", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "More realistic than anticipated: a classical forest fire model from statistical physics captures real fire shapes", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Zinck" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Grimm" } ], "abstractNote": "The quantitative study of wildfire data world wide revealed that wildfires exhibit power-law like frequencyarea\ndistributions. Although models exist to predict the spread of a specific fire, there is as yet no agreement on the\nmechanism which drives wildfire systems on the landscape scale. A classical model in this context is the Drossel-Schwabl\ncellular automaton (DS-FFM) which robustly produces a power-law like frequency-area statistic for fire sizes. This model\noriginated in statistical physics where it was used to illustrate the concept of self-organized criticality. A conjecture has\nbeen made in the literature that this model is not able to produce the spatial patterns of actual wildfires and hence is of no\necological significance. We test this conjecture by comparing the shape of simulated fires in the DS-FFM to those of 68\nfires in the boreal forests of Alberta, Canada. Our results suggest that, contrary to the conjecture, the Drossel-Schwabl\nmodel performs well in producing realistic fire shapes. It can hence not be excluded as a candidate mechanism behind\nwildfire systems. We do show, however, that the performance depends on the size of the fire. Best results are obtained for\nfires of 400-2,000 ha. Very large fires of 2,000-20,000 ha and smaller fires of 20-200 ha differ from the simulated burn\nscars in the distribution and median size of islands of unburnt vegetation. Nevertheless, the overall fit remains good even\nfor these size classes.", "publicationTitle": "The Open Ecology Journal", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2008", "volume": "1", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "8–11", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "More realistic than anticipated", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "0008", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:56:55Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:56:55Z" } }, { "key": "8HT4RGQR", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/8HT4RGQR", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/8HT4RGQR", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Woolford et al.", "parsedDate": "2010", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "8HT4RGQR", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Characterizing temporal changes in forest fire ignitions: looking for climate change signals in a region of the Canadian boreal forest", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Douglas G.", "lastName": "Woolford" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jiguo", "lastName": "Cao" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Charmaine B.", "lastName": "Dean" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "David L.", "lastName": "Martell" } ], "abstractNote": "The potential impact of climate change on forest fire risk is of significant concern. Postulated climate change effects on wildfires include increasing annual trends in ignitions and a lengthening of the fire season. We propose to use logistic generalized additive mixed models to investigate these characteristics. We present the modelling framework and outline a set of candidate models that are nested in terms of their fixed effects components. Model selection via likelihood ratio testing is discussed and connected to an entropy-based scoring rule for Bernoulli responses. We illustrate its application using data for lightning-caused forest fire ignitions over a period of 42 years in a 9 884 943 hectare region of boreal forest of northwestern Ontario, Canada. Seasonal and annual changes in ignition risk are observed and discussed, but we identify significant outstanding confounding factors that need to be addressed before one can assess the extent to which those changes can or cannot be attributed to climate change.", "publicationTitle": "Environmetrics", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "11/2010", "volume": "21", "issue": "7-8", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "789-800", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/env.1067", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/env.1067", "accessDate": "2012-02-21T15:03:15Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "11804009", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Characterizing temporal changes in forest fire ignitions", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0002", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:55:42Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:55:42Z" } }, { "key": "BXTMXGRZ", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/BXTMXGRZ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/BXTMXGRZ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Strong and Magnusdottir", "parsedDate": "2009", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "BXTMXGRZ", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "The Role of Tropospheric Rossby Wave Breaking in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Courtenay", "lastName": "Strong" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gudrun", "lastName": "Magnusdottir" } ], "abstractNote": "The leading pattern of extratropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability [the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)] is shown to depend on observed variability in the spatiotemporal distribution of tropospheric Rossby wave breaking (RWB), where RWB is the irreversible overturning of potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces. Composite analyses based on hundreds of RWB cases show that anticyclonic (cyclonic) RWB is associated with a warm, moist (cool, dry) column that extends down to a surface anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation, and that the moisture and temperature advection associated with the surface circulation patterns force turbulent heat flux anomalies that project onto the spatial pattern of the PDO. The RWB patterns that are relevant to the PDO are closely tied to El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the northern annular mode. These results explain the free troposphere-to-surface segment of the atmospheric bridge concept wherein El Niño anomalies emerge in summer and modify circulation patterns that act over several months to force sea surface temperature anomalies in the extratropical Pacific during late winter or early spring. Leading patterns of RWB account for a significant fraction of PDO interannual variability for any month of the year. A multilinear model is developed in which the January mean PDO index for 1958–2006 is regressed upon the leading principal components of cyclonic and anticyclonic RWB from the immediately preceding winter and summer months (four indexes in all), accounting for more than two-thirds of the variance.\n\nKeywords: Troposphere, Rossby waves, Pacific decadal oscillation", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Climate", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "04/2009", "volume": "22", "issue": "7", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1819-1833", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1175/2008JCLI2593.1", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2593.1", "accessDate": "2012-03-08T15:33:03Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0894-8755, 1520-0442", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:55:16Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:55:16Z" } }, { "key": "GFKVV6QS", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/GFKVV6QS", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/GFKVV6QS", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Shindell et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-01-12", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "GFKVV6QS", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Shindell" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. C. I.", "lastName": "Kuylenstierna" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Vignati" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "van Dingenen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Amann" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Z.", "lastName": "Klimont" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S. C.", "lastName": "Anenberg" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N.", "lastName": "Muller" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Janssens-Maenhout" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "F.", "lastName": "Raes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Schwartz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Faluvegi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Pozzoli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K.", "lastName": "Kupiainen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Hoglund-Isaksson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Emberson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Streets" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Ramanathan" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "K.", "lastName": "Hicks" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N. T. K.", "lastName": "Oanh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Milly" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Williams" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "V.", "lastName": "Demkine" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Fowler" } ], "abstractNote": "Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.", "publicationTitle": "Science", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-01-12", "volume": "335", "issue": "6065", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "183-189", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1126/science.1210026", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210026", "accessDate": "2012-01-16T22:27:33Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0036-8075, 1095-9203", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:54:52Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:54:52Z" } }, { "key": "39DM9IM7", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/39DM9IM7", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/39DM9IM7", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Schuur and Abbott", "parsedDate": "2011-11-30", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "39DM9IM7", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate change: High risk of permafrost thaw", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Edward A. G.", "lastName": "Schuur" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Benjamin", "lastName": "Abbott" } ], "abstractNote": "Arctic temperatures are rising fast, and permafrost is thawing. Carbon released into the atmosphere from permafrost soils will accelerate climate change, but the magnitude of this effect remains highly uncertain. Our collective estimate is that carbon will be released more quickly than models suggest, and at levels that are cause for serious concern.\nWe calculate that permafrost thaw will release the same order of magnitude of carbon as deforestation if current rates of deforestation continue. But because these emissions include significant quantities of methane, the overall effect on climate could be 2.5 times larger.\nRecent years have brought reports from the far north of tundra fires1, the release of ancient carbon2, CH4 bubbling out of lakes3 and gigantic stores of frozen soil carbon4. The latest estimate is that some 18.8 million square kilometres of northern soils hold about 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon4 — the remains of plants and animals that have been accumulating in the soil over thousands of years. That is about four times more than all the carbon emitted by human activity in modern times and twice as much as is present in the atmosphere now.\nThis soil carbon amount is more than three times higher than previous estimates, largely because of the realization that organic carbon is stored much deeper in frozen soils than was thought. Inventories typically measure carbon in the top metre of soil. But the physical mixing during freeze–thaw cycles, in combination with sediment deposition over hundreds and thousands of years, has buried permafrost carbon many metres deep.\nThe answers to three key questions will determine the extent to which the emission of this carbon will affect climate change: How much is vulnerable to release into the atmosphere? In what form it will be released? And how fast will it be released? These questions are easily framed, but challenging to answer.", "publicationTitle": "Nature", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-11-30", "volume": "480", "issue": "7375", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "32-33", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/480032a", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/480032a", "accessDate": "2011-12-08T17:41:14Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0028-0836, 1476-4687", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Climate change", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:53:43Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:53:43Z" } }, { "key": "ZDUFK4H2", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/ZDUFK4H2", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/ZDUFK4H2", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Schmittner et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-11-24", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "ZDUFK4H2", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate Sensitivity Estimated from Temperature Reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Schmittner" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N. M.", "lastName": "Urban" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. D.", "lastName": "Shakun" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "N. M.", "lastName": "Mahowald" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. U.", "lastName": "Clark" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P. J.", "lastName": "Bartlein" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A. C.", "lastName": "Mix" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.", "lastName": "Rosell-Mele" } ], "abstractNote": "Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.", "publicationTitle": "Science", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-11-24", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1126/science.1203513", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1203513", "accessDate": "2011-11-29T14:45:49Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0036-8075, 1095-9203", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:52:58Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:52:58Z" } }, { "key": "VIH3FNTE", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/VIH3FNTE", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/VIH3FNTE", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Peterson et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "VIH3FNTE", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Responding to climate change on national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.L.", "lastName": "Peterson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.I.", "lastName": "Millar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.A.", "lastName": "Joyce" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.J.", "lastName": "Furniss" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.E.", "lastName": "Halofsky" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.P.", "lastName": "Neilson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T.L.", "lastName": "Morelli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.W.", "lastName": "Swanston" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "McNulty" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.K.", "lastName": "Janowiak" } ], "abstractNote": "This guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. The adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop management options that can capitalize on new opportunities and reduce deleterious effects. Because management objectives and sensitivity of resources to climate change differ among national forests, appropriate processes and tools for developing adaptation options may also differ. Regardless of specific processes and tools, the following steps are recommended: (1) become aware of basic climate change science and integrate that understanding with knowledge of local resource conditions and issues (review), (2) evaluate sensitivity of specific natural resources to climate change (rank), (3) develop and implement strategic and tactical options for adapting resources to climate change (resolve), and (4) monitor the effectiveness of adaptation options (observe) and adjust management as needed. Results of recent case studies on adaptation in national forests and national parks can facilitate integration of climate change in resource management and planning and make the adaptation process more efficient. Adaptation to climate change will be successful only if it can be fully implemented in established planning processes and other operational aspects of national forest management.\n\nKeywords: Adaptation, climate change, national forests, national parks, science-management partnership, vulnerability assessment.", "publicationTitle": "Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-855", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "volume": "General Technical Report", "issue": "PNW-GTR-855", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "109", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr855.pdf", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Responding to climate change on national forests", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "0001", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:52:27Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:52:27Z" } }, { "key": "N63PTRNB", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/N63PTRNB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/N63PTRNB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Peters et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-12-04", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "N63PTRNB", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008–2009 global financial crisis", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Glen P.", "lastName": "Peters" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gregg", "lastName": "Marland" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Corinne", "lastName": "Le Quéré" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Boden" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Josep G.", "lastName": "Canadell" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael R.", "lastName": "Raupach" } ], "abstractNote": "Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production grew 5.9% in 2010, surpassed 9 Pg of carbon (Pg C) for the first time, and more than offset the 1.4% decrease in 2009. The impact of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis (GFC) on emissions has been short-lived owing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Climate Change", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-12-4", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/nclimate1332", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1332", "accessDate": "2011-12-08T16:59:15Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1758-678X, 1758-6798", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:51:47Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:51:47Z" } }, { "key": "H5GJ69SF", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/H5GJ69SF", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/H5GJ69SF", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Pagani et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-12-01", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "H5GJ69SF", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "The Role of Carbon Dioxide During the Onset of Antarctic Glaciation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Pagani" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M.", "lastName": "Huber" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Z.", "lastName": "Liu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S. M.", "lastName": "Bohaty" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Henderiks" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Sijp" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Krishnan" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R. M.", "lastName": "DeConto" } ], "abstractNote": "Earth’s modern climate, characterized by polar ice sheets and large equator-to-pole temperature gradients, is rooted in environmental changes that promoted Antarctic glaciation ~33.7 million years ago. Onset of Antarctic glaciation reflects a critical tipping point for Earth’s climate and provides a framework for investigating the role of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) during major climatic change. Previously published records of alkenone-based CO2 from high- and low-latitude ocean localities suggested that CO2 increased during glaciation, in contradiction to theory. Here, we further investigate alkenone records and demonstrate that Antarctic and subantarctic data overestimate atmospheric CO2 levels, biasing long-term trends. Our results show that CO2 declined before and during Antarctic glaciation and support a substantial CO2 decrease as the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation, consistent with model-derived CO2 thresholds.", "publicationTitle": "Science", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011-12-01", "volume": "334", "issue": "6060", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1261-1264", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1126/science.1203909", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1203909", "accessDate": "2011-12-08T17:35:09Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0036-8075, 1095-9203", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:50:18Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:50:18Z" } }, { "key": "WHWR54UW", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/WHWR54UW", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/WHWR54UW", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Matthews and Zickfeld", "parsedDate": "2012-03-04", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "WHWR54UW", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate response to zeroed emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H. Damon", "lastName": "Matthews" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Kirsten", "lastName": "Zickfeld" } ], "abstractNote": "The climate response to scenarios of zero future greenhouse-gas emissions can be interpreted as the committed future warming associated with past emissions, and represents a critical benchmark against which to estimate the effect of future emissions1, 2. Recent climate-model simulations have shown that when emissions of carbon dioxide alone are eliminated, global temperature stabilizes and remains approximately constant for several centuries. Here, we show that when aerosol and other greenhouse-gas emissions are also eliminated, global temperature increases by a few tenths of a degree over about a decade, as a result of the rapid removal of present-day aerosol forcing. This initial warming is followed by a gradual cooling that returns global temperature to present-day levels after several centuries, owing to the decline in non-carbon dioxide greenhouse-gas concentrations. We show further that the magnitude of the peak temperature response to zero future emissions depends strongly on the uncertain strength of present-day aerosol forcing. Contingent on the climate and carbon-cycle sensitivities of the model used here, we show that the range of aerosol forcing that produces historical warming that is consistent with observed data, results in a warming of between 0.25 and 0.5 °C over the decade immediately following zeroed emissions.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Climate Change", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-3-4", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/nclimate1424", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1424", "accessDate": "2012-03-07T17:51:27Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1758-678X, 1758-6798", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "wts" } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:49:32Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:49:32Z" } }, { "key": "6ETFI7FI", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/6ETFI7FI", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/6ETFI7FI", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Matei et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-01-05", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "6ETFI7FI", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 N", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Matei" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Baehr" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. H.", "lastName": "Jungclaus" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Haak" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W. A.", "lastName": "Muller" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Marotzke" } ], "abstractNote": "Attempts to predict changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) have yielded little success to date. Here, we demonstrate predictability for monthly mean AMOC strength at 26.5°N for up to 4 years in advance. This AMOC predictive skill arises predominantly from the basin-wide upper-mid-ocean geostrophic transport, which in turn can be predicted because we have skill in predicting the upper-ocean zonal density difference. Ensemble forecasts initialized between January 2008 and January 2011 indicate a stable AMOC at 26.5°N until at least 2014, despite a brief wind-induced weakening in 2010. Because AMOC influences many aspects of climate, our results establish AMOC as an important potential carrier of climate predictability.", "publicationTitle": "Science", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-01-05", "volume": "335", "issue": "6064", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "76-79", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1126/science.1210299", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.1210299", "accessDate": "2012-01-10T14:19:17Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0036-8075, 1095-9203", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:49:02Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:49:02Z" } }, { "key": "P8XAZEH2", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/P8XAZEH2", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/P8XAZEH2", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Mann et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-02-05", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "P8XAZEH2", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Underestimation of volcanic cooling in tree-ring-based reconstructions of hemispheric temperatures", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael E.", "lastName": "Mann" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jose D.", "lastName": "Fuentes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Scott", "lastName": "Rutherford" } ], "abstractNote": "The largest eruption of a tropical volcano during the past millennium occurred in AD 1258–1259. Its estimated radiative forcing was several times larger than the 1991 Pinatubo\neruption. Radiative forcing of that magnitude is expected to result in a climate cooling of about 2 o C. This effect, however, is largely absent from tree-ring reconstructions of temperature, and is muted in reconstructions that employ a mix of tree-rings and other proxy data. This\ndiscrepancy has called into question the climate impact of the eruption. Here we use a tree-growth model driven by simulated temperature variations to show that the discrepancy between expected and reconstructed temperatures is probably\nan artefact caused by a reduced sensitivity to cooling in trees that grow near the treeline. This effect is compounded by the secondary effects of chronological errors due to missing growth\nrings and volcanically induced alterations of diffuse light. We support this conclusion with an assessment of synthetic proxy records created using the simulated temperature variations.\nOur findings suggest that the evidence from tree rings is consistent with a substantial climate impact of volcanic eruptions in past centuries that is greater than that estimated by tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Geoscience", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-2-5", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/ngeo1394", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo1394", "accessDate": "2012-02-14T15:11:46Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1752-0894, 1752-0908", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:48:34Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:48:34Z" } }, { "key": "QHHTVXGN", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/QHHTVXGN", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/QHHTVXGN", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Lenton et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-02-01", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "QHHTVXGN", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "First plants cooled the Ordovician", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Timothy M.", "lastName": "Lenton" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael", "lastName": "Crouch" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Martin", "lastName": "Johnson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Nuno", "lastName": "Pires" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Liam", "lastName": "Dolan" } ], "abstractNote": "The Late Ordovician period, ending 444 million years ago, was marked by the onset of glaciations. The expansion of non-vascular land plants accelerated chemical weathering and may have drawn down enough atmospheric carbon dioxide to trigger the growth of ice sheets.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Geoscience", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-2-1", "volume": "5", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "86-89", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/ngeo1390", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/ngeo1390", "accessDate": "2012-02-03T15:12:38Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1752-0894, 1752-0908", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:48:11Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:48:11Z" } }, { "key": "HI3T8DDT", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/HI3T8DDT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/HI3T8DDT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Lenton et al.", "parsedDate": "2008-02-07", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "HI3T8DDT", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "T. M.", "lastName": "Lenton" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Held" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Kriegler" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. W.", "lastName": "Hall" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Lucht" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Rahmstorf" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H. J.", "lastName": "Schellnhuber" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2008-02-07", "volume": "105", "issue": "6", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1786-1793", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1073/pnas.0705414105", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0705414105", "accessDate": "2012-03-23T13:02:48Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0027-8424, 1091-6490", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Inaugural Article", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:48:07Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:48:07Z" } }, { "key": "9KWESN5R", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/9KWESN5R", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/9KWESN5R", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Butler", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "9KWESN5R", "version": 1, "itemType": "report", "title": "The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI)", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "James H.", "lastName": "Butler" } ], "abstractNote": "Increases in the abundances of atmospheric greenhouse gases since the industrial revolution are largely responsible for the observed change in climate [IPCC2007]. However, climate projections have model uncertainties that overwhelm the uncertainties in greenhouse gas measurements. We present here an index that is directly proportional to the direct forcing of climate; and which contains relatively little uncertainty. Because it is based on the amounts of long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it, in a sense, represents society’s long-term commitment to global warming.\n\nThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate forcing as “An externally imposed perturbation in the radiative energy budget of the Earth climate system, e.g. through changes in solar radiation, changes in the Earth albedo, or changes in atmospheric gases and aerosol particles.” Thus climate forcing is a “change” in the status quo. IPCC takes the pre-industrial era (arbitrarily chosen as the year 1750) as the baseline. The perturbation to direct climate forcing (also termed “radiative forcing”) that has the largest magnitude and the least scientific uncertainty is the forcing related to changes in long-lived and well mixed greenhouse gases, in particular carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and halogenated compounds (mainly CFCs).\n\nAtmospheric global greenhouse gas abundances are used to calculate changes in radiative forcing for the period beginning in 1979 when NOAA's global air sampling network expanded significantly. The change in annual average total radiative forcing by all the long-lived greenhouse gases since the pre-industrial era (1750) is used to define the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which was introduced in 2004 [Hofmann et al., 2006a] and has been updated annually since.\n\nThe AGGI is a measure of radiative forcing of climate which was designed to enhance the connection between scientists and society by providing a normalized standard that can be easily understood and followed. The contribution of long-lived greenhouse gases to climate forcing is well understood by scientists and has been reported by NOAA through a range of national and international assessments. Nevertheless, the language of scientists often eludes policy makers, educators, and the general public. This index is designed to help bridge that gap.", "reportNumber": "", "reportType": "", "institution": "U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory | Global Monitoring Division", "place": "", "date": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesNumber": "", "pages": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/index.html", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:47:00Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:47:00Z" } }, { "key": "AWS7XT8F", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 46691, "name": "JFSP Fire History and Climate Change", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/46691/items/AWS7XT8F", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/jfsp_fire_history_and_climate_change/items/AWS7XT8F", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 21692, "username": "wsommers@gmu.edu", "name": "William T. (Bill) Sommers", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/wsommersgmu.edu", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Gottfried et al.", "parsedDate": "2012-01-10", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "AWS7XT8F", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael", "lastName": "Gottfried" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Harald", "lastName": "Pauli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andreas", "lastName": "Futschik" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Maia", "lastName": "Akhalkatsi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Peter", "lastName": "Barančok" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "José Luis", "lastName": "Benito Alonso" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gheorghe", "lastName": "Coldea" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jan", "lastName": "Dick" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Brigitta", "lastName": "Erschbamer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Marı´a Rosa", "lastName": "Fernández Calzado" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "George", "lastName": "Kazakis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ján", "lastName": "Krajči" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Per", "lastName": "Larsson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Martin", "lastName": "Mallaun" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ottar", "lastName": "Michelsen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Dmitry", "lastName": "Moiseev" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Pavel", "lastName": "Moiseev" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ulf", "lastName": "Molau" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Abderrahmane", "lastName": "Merzouki" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Laszlo", "lastName": "Nagy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "George", "lastName": "Nakhutsrishvili" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Bård", "lastName": "Pedersen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Giovanni", "lastName": "Pelino" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mihai", "lastName": "Puscas" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Graziano", "lastName": "Rossi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Angela", "lastName": "Stanisci" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jean-Paul", "lastName": "Theurillat" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Marcello", "lastName": "Tomaselli" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Luis", "lastName": "Villar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Pascal", "lastName": "Vittoz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ioannis", "lastName": "Vogiatzakis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Georg", "lastName": "Grabherr" } ], "abstractNote": "Climate impact studies have indicated ecological fingerprints of recent global warming across a wide range of habitats. Although these studies have shown responses from various local case studies, a coherent large-scale account on temperature-driven changes of biotic communities has been lacking. Here we use 867 vegetation samples above the treeline from 60 summit sites in all major European mountain systems to show that ongoing climate change gradually transforms mountain plant communities. We provide evidence that the more cold-adapted species decline and the more warm-adapted species increase, a process described here as thermophilization. At the scale of individual mountains this general trend may not be apparent, but at the larger, continental scale we observed a significantly higher abundance of thermophilic species in 2008, compared with 2001. Thermophilization of mountain plant communities mirrors the degree of recent warming and is more pronounced in areas where the temperature increase has been higher. In view of the projected climate change the observed transformation suggests a progressive decline of cold mountain habitats and their biota.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Climate Change", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012-1-10", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1038/nclimate1329", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nclimate1329", "accessDate": "2012-01-16T22:41:43Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1758-678X, 1758-6798", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CrossRef", "callNumber": "0000", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2012-05-08T16:40:20Z", "dateModified": "2012-05-08T16:40:20Z" } } ]