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                    "firstName": "Robert",
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            "abstractNote": "Studies on the health effects of long-term average exposure to outdoor air pollution have played an important role in recent health impact assessments. Exposure assessment for epidemiological studies of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution remains a difficult challenge because of substantial small-scale spatial variation. Current approaches for assessing intra-urban air pollution contrasts include the use of exposure indicator variables, interpolation methods, dispersion models and land-use regression (LUR) models. LUR models have been increasingly used in the past few years. This paper provides a critical review of the different components of LUR models. We identified 25 land-use regression studies. Land-use regression combines monitoring of air pollution at typically 20–100 locations, spread over the study area, and development of stochastic models using predictor variables usually obtained through geographic information systems (GIS). Monitoring is usually temporally limited: one to four surveys of typically one or two weeks duration. Significant predictor variables include various traffic representations, population density, land use, physical geography (e.g. altitude) and climate. Land-use regression methods have generally been applied successfully to model annual mean concentrations of NO2, NOx, PM2.5, the soot content of PM2.5 and VOCs in different settings, including European and North-American cities. The performance of the method in urban areas is typically better or equivalent to geo-statistical methods, such as kriging, and dispersion models. Further developments of the land-use regression method include more focus on developing models that can be transferred to other areas, inclusion of additional predictor variables such as wind direction or emission data and further exploration of focalsum methods. Models that include a spatial and a temporal component are of interest for (e.g. birth cohort) studies that need exposure variables on a finer temporal scale. There is a strong need for validation of LUR models with personal exposure monitoring.",
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            "abstractNote": "Background\nLand-use regression (LUR) is a cost-effective approach for predicting spatial variability in ambient air pollutant concentrations with high resolution. Models have been widely used in epidemiological studies and are often applied to time periods before or after the period of air quality monitoring used in model development. However, it is unclear how well such models perform when extrapolated over time.\nObjective\nThe objective of this study was to assess the temporal stability of LUR models over a period of 7 years in Metro Vancouver, Canada.\nMethods\nA set of NO and NO2 LUR models based on 116 measurements were developed in 2003. In 2010, we made 116 measurements again, of which 73 were made at the exact same location as in 2003. We then developed 2010 models using updated data for the same predictor variables used in 2003, and also explored additional variables. Four methods were used to derive model predictions over 7 years, and predictions were compared with measurements to assess the temporal stability of LUR models.\nResults\nThe correlation between 2003 NO and 2010 NO measurements was 0.87 with a mean (sd) decrease of 11.3 (9.9) ppb. For NO2, the correlation was 0.74, with a mean (sd) decrease of 2.4 (3.2) ppb. 2003 and 2010 LUR models explained similar amounts of spatial variation (R2 = 0.59 and R2 = 0.58 for NO; R2 = 0.52 and R2 = 0.63 for NO2, in 2003 and in 2010 respectively). The 2003 models explained more variability in the 2010 measurements (R2 = 0.58–0.60 for NO; R2 = 0.52–0.61 for NO2) than the 2010 models explained in the 2003 measurements (R2 = 0.50–0.55 for NO; R2 = 0.44–0.49 for NO2), and the 2003 models explained as much variability in the 2010 measurements as they did in the 2003 measurements.\nConclusion\nLUR models are able to provide reliable estimates over a period of 7 years in Metro Vancouver. When concentrations and their variability are decreasing over time, the predictive power of LUR models is likely to remain the same or to improve in forecasting scenarios, but to decrease in hind-casting scenarios.",
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