[ { "key": "4NGRTCVT", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 3738, "name": "Climate Change Risk Analysis", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/3738/items/4NGRTCVT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis/items/4NGRTCVT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 38720, "username": "andrew.hartley", "name": "Andrew Hartley", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/andrew.hartley", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Johnson and Weaver", "parsedDate": "2009-01-01", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "4NGRTCVT", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Johnson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christopher", "lastName": "Weaver" } ], "abstractNote": "Abstract In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.", "publicationTitle": "Environmental Management", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "January 01, 2009", "volume": "43", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "118-134", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1007/s00267-008-9205-4", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-008-9205-4", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2009-08-11T16:07:27Z", "dateModified": "2009-08-11T16:07:27Z" } }, { "key": "FVAJ2UIW", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 3738, "name": "Climate Change Risk Analysis", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/3738/items/FVAJ2UIW", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis/items/FVAJ2UIW", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 38720, "username": "andrew.hartley", "name": "Andrew Hartley", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/andrew.hartley", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Frey and Patil", "parsedDate": "2002", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "FVAJ2UIW", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Identification and Review of Sensitivity Analysis Methods", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H. Christopher", "lastName": "Frey" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Sumeet R.", "lastName": "Patil" } ], "abstractNote": "Identification and qualitative comparison of sensitivity analysis methods that have been used across various disciplines, and that merit consideration for application to food-safety risk assessment models, are presented in this article. Sensitivity analysis can help in identifying critical control points, prioritizing additional data collection or research, and verifying and validating a model. Ten sensitivity analysis methods, including four mathematical methods, five statistical methods, and one graphical method, are identified. The selected methods are compared on the basis of their applicability to different types of models, computational issues such as initial data requirement and complexity of their application, representation of the sensitivity, and the specific uses of these methods. Applications of these methods are illustrated with examples from various fields. No one method is clearly best for food-safety risk models. In general, use of two or more methods, preferably with dissimilar theoretical foundations, may be needed to increase confidence in the ranking of key inputs.", "publicationTitle": "Risk Analysis", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2002", "volume": "22", "issue": "3", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "553-578", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/0272-4332.00039", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z", "dateModified": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z" } }, { "key": "ZXTW796F", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 3738, "name": "Climate Change Risk Analysis", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/3738/items/ZXTW796F", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis/items/ZXTW796F", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 38720, "username": "andrew.hartley", "name": "Andrew Hartley", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/andrew.hartley", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jones", "parsedDate": "2000", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "ZXTW796F", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Analysing the risk of climate change using an irrigation demand model", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Roger N.", "lastName": "Jones" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Climate Research", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2000", "volume": "14", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "89-100", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v14/n2/p89-100/", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z", "dateModified": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z" } }, { "key": "PJ6E8R86", "version": 1, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 3738, "name": "Climate Change Risk Analysis", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/3738/items/PJ6E8R86", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/climate_change_risk_analysis/items/PJ6E8R86", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 38720, "username": "andrew.hartley", "name": "Andrew Hartley", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/andrew.hartley", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jones", "parsedDate": "2001-03-01", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "PJ6E8R86", "version": 1, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Roger N.", "lastName": "Jones" } ], "abstractNote": "This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed.", "publicationTitle": "Natural Hazards", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "March 01, 2001", "volume": "23", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "197-230", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1023/A:1011148019213", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1011148019213", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z", "dateModified": "2009-08-11T15:51:20Z" } } ]