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Export Date: 2 July 2015

", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "HE59FGQ2", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/HE59FGQ2", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/HE59FGQ2", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Sterman", "parsedDate": "2014", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "HE59FGQ2", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Interactive web-based simulations for strategy and sustainability: The MIT Sloan LearningEdge management flight simulators, Part I", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Sterman" } ], "abstractNote": "The MIT Sloan School of Management has created a set of interactive, web-based management flight simulators to teach key ideas in business, strategy, sustainability and related fields. The simulations are freely available through the MIT Sloan LearningEdge portal (mitsloan.mit.edu/LearningEdge). In these notes I describe six simulations available as of 2014. Part I describes Salt Seller (a multiplayer commodity pricing simulation); Eclipsing the Competition (learning curves, using the solar photovoltaic industry as the example); and Platform Wars (competition in the presence of network externalities using the video game industry as the context). Part II describes Fishbanks (the Tragedy of the Commons in the context of renewable resource management, updating the classic game by Dennis Meadows); CleanStart (building a startup firm, with clean tech as an example); and World Climate (an interactive role play of global climate negotiations). Each simulator enables participants to learn experientially about important concepts in management, strategy and/or sustainability. Each is grounded in a particular industry or firm, and comes with original case studies or briefing material describing the strategic challenges in these settings. Through these simulations, students, executives, policymakers and others can explore the consequences of different strategies so they can learn for themselves about the complex dynamics of difficult issues. I describe their purpose and use, illustrate their dynamics and outline the instructor resources available for each. © 2014 System Dynamics Society.", "publicationTitle": "System Dynamics Review", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2014", "volume": "30", "issue": "1-2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "89-121", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/sdr.1513", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84905719904&partnerID=40&md5=e5711bdee4f4c5b3c3692e9afe809f69", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "2SM9Q5FR", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/2SM9Q5FR", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/2SM9Q5FR", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Valerdi and Fernandes", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "2SM9Q5FR", "version": 4, "itemType": "conferencePaper", "title": "Underestimation in the \"when it gets worse before it gets better\" phenomenon in process improvement", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Valerdi" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B.", "lastName": "Fernandes" } ], "abstractNote": "When people make interventions to a system they expect the effects to be nearly instantaneous. Unfortunately, in most of the cases the intervention intended to improve the process actually causes outcomes to get worse before they get better, if they get better at all. The challenge in these types of situations is being able to readjust expectations that there is a delay in the improvement. This is not simply a case of learning curve where people get better by performing repetitive tasks over time. What we are describing is a delay in the improvement and, in some cases, a degradation of performance. In this paper we discuss why humans tend to underestimate such delays in process improvement across a variety of circumstances. To illustrate this, we compare data collected from a survey with three well-documented scenarios of process improvement: the implementation of a preventative maintenance program at DuPont, the modification of Tiger Woods' golf swing, and the implementation of a platform engineering initiative for the embedded software product line at Rolls-Royce. We discuss potential reasons for the chronic underestimation of these types of improvements and recommend mechanisms for making these estimates more realistic. © 2011 Springer-Verlag London Limited.", "proceedingsTitle": "", "conferenceName": "Advanced Concurrent Engineering", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "eventPlace": "", "volume": "", "issue": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "pages": "3-10", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "DOI": "10.1007/978-0-85729-799-0_1", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84870193507&partnerID=40&md5=32919ff38a0df53c662f204054517fc3", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Hyperbolic discounting" }, { "tag": "Improvement paradox" }, { "tag": "Planning fallacy" }, { "tag": "Process delays" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "HF73EIDB", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/HF73EIDB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/HF73EIDB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Volcan et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "HF73EIDB", "version": 4, "itemType": "conferencePaper", "title": "An alternate simplified approach for selecting enhanced oil recovery technologies using analogs and Hubbert peak theory", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.L.O.", "lastName": "Volcan" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.I.", "lastName": "Blanco" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.S.", "lastName": "Djotaroeno" } ], "abstractNote": "Selecting the optimum combination of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technologies is a critical activity during preparation of a successful business plan. This is usually accomplished by using protocols with technical parameters at reservoir formation levels from which candidates EOR technologies are screened and then subject to investment and risk assessment evaluation for final decision by management. The previous approach very often misses the effect of operational expenditures, wearing and failure related downtime and learning curve during pilot testing on oil recovery efficiency and EOR economics which is usually expressed in terms of net present value. This paper proposes an alternate simplified approach using an acceptable representation of life cycle phases of natural and physical asset components functioning as a system of assets for a particular subject reservoir. We introduce a taxonomic solution to help in classifying candidates EOR technologies. Four major functional indices are used for handling uncertainties and risks using data from analogs for defined scenarios in the subject reservoir: 1-Accesability) Footprint effects for constructing and operating physical assets (wells and surface infrastructure), 2-Contactability) Volume of resources contacted from a surface location, 3-Produceability) Volume of producible resources from drainage area to surface and 4- Effectiveness) Combined effect of availability, reliability, maintainability y and capability in efficiency of oil recovery. The four major indices are cross referenced with life cycle cost (LCC) and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) using Hubbert peak oil theory and the Petroleum Resources Management System classification for resources and reserves. Uncertainties and risks are modeled with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) or Systems Dynamics (SD) depending on the complexity of the system of assets. We present examples using synthetic data to illustrate the method. This approach is worth using during EOR project definition and planning as an alternate to complex data hungry methods. Copyright 2011, Society of Petroleum Engineers.", "proceedingsTitle": "", "conferenceName": "Society of Petroleum Engineers - SPE Enhanced Oil Recovery Conference 2011, EORC 2011", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "eventPlace": "", "volume": "2", "issue": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "pages": "1369-1387", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-80755172403&partnerID=40&md5=ae53107e185d16663506ffff252a9944", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "ZAR7969H", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/ZAR7969H", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/ZAR7969H", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Ahmad et al.", "parsedDate": "2015", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "ZAR7969H", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Role of feed-in tariff policy in promoting solar photovoltaic investments in Malaysia: A system dynamics approach", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Ahmad" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.M.", "lastName": "Tahar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "F.", "lastName": "Muhammad-Sukki" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "A.B.", "lastName": "Munir" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.A.", "lastName": "Rahim" } ], "abstractNote": "Solar photovoltaic has shown a significant rise in terms of worldwide installation. One of the main reason is due to the introduction of the FiT (feed-in tariff) policy by the governments. This paper aims to evaluate FiT policy in promoting solar PV (photovoltaic) investments in Malaysia by using a dynamic systems approach. The assessment model captures the complexities arising from the interaction of FiT rate dynamics, construction delays, and investors' and technology learning dynamics in an integrated framework. The model provides total operational PV capacity, amount of finances needed to support the policy, and the cost of environmental savings, as output. Computer simulations, based on twelve scenarios, were used as a means to study the model behaviour. For the most favourable scenario, a total capacity of about 16GWPV by 2050 can be expected, while for the least favourable scenario, expectations would be only about 10GW. On the expenditure side, the most favourable scenario can cost up to MYR (Malaysia Ringgit) 15 billion, whereas, for the least favourable ones, the cost can be as low as MYR2 billion. The maximum cost of CO2 abatement can vary from MYR 0.05 per kg-CO2 to the lowest value of MYR 0.02 per kg-CO2. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd.", "publicationTitle": "Energy", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2015", "volume": "84", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "808-815", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1016/j.energy.2015.03.047", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84928419759&partnerID=40&md5=a0a6fdeb704728dfed3db1d887a5d8f8", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Feed-in tariff" }, { "tag": "Malaysia" }, { "tag": "Solar PV" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "27N96UEM", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/27N96UEM", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/27N96UEM", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Chernoguz", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "27N96UEM", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "The system dynamics of Brooks' Law in team production", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.G.", "lastName": "Chernoguz" } ], "abstractNote": "When a project is behind schedule, managers usually respond by bringing in additional workforce. Brooks' Law points out the systemic limits to staffing intervention, which are related to dynamic relationships between team buildup and loss of production due to communication and training overheads. ProjScout™, a theoretical model of Brooks' Law, responds logically when input parameters are assigned extreme values and coherently sensitive to stepwise changes of input. Simulation experiments revealed relative inherent limits of staffing intervention, related to dynamic relationships between initial team size, training new team members, their learning curve, and productive time lost due to intercommunication. As a rule of thumb, Brooks' Law applies only when project resources are limited. The actual effect of investment in training, as well as concluding whether Brooks' Law applies in a particular case, can be modeled only when actual values of the productivity, communication entropy, and actual learning curve are known. ProjScout™ can facilitate project decision-making in a wide range of production and service industries-wherever experienced performers have to divide their work time between production and other activities. © 2010 Simulation Councils Inc.", "publicationTitle": "Simulation", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "volume": "87", "issue": "11", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "947-975", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1177/0037549710382423", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-80755172405&partnerID=40&md5=8e45352bdb8c2c48d20d2b6dfa29ae7d", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Brooks' Law" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" }, { "tag": "bazaar and cathedral development" }, { "tag": "communication overhead" }, { "tag": "programming teams" }, { "tag": "schedule estimation" }, { "tag": "simulation" }, { "tag": "software development" }, { "tag": "training" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "WQJIVSJV", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/WQJIVSJV", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/WQJIVSJV", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Carter et al.", "parsedDate": "2013", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "WQJIVSJV", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Using groups to support judgmental parameter estimation VISCONS: 'Eyeballing' to capture a quantified group consensus", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Carter" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Moizer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Liu" } ], "abstractNote": "Whilst the concept of a learning curve is well established, within organisational settings the coordinates of points on the curve often remain unmeasured. Devon and Cornwall Police are a UK police force that is seeking to better allocate officer resource to high volumes of crime demand through understanding the relationship between levels of officer learning and development and the time required to resolve crimes. Devon and Cornwall Police subscribed to building a system dynamics simulation model of officer resourcing, within which an aggregate learning curve would convert levels of available officer experience into time required to resolve volume crime. Fragmented learning curve data meant that judgmental data needed to be elicited from expert practitioners in order to establish a consensus based measure of bivariate relationships. VISCONS is a judgmental method that was developed to help Devon and Cornwall Police quantify these relationships in a group setting. Three components are synergised into the VISCONS approach, namely: visual or graphical elicitation, parameterisation and consensus through group model building. The method brings together expert practitioners to arrive at a single shared view of the quantified bivariate relationship from a set of individual perspectives. Experts are involved in sketching their views onto acetates before overlaying them into a set of agreed parameter values. Experts do not require any knowledge of system dynamics simulation techniques, as they are facilitated in a single workshop to represent and amalgamate different views and perspectives on the parameterisation problem under consideration. The group is able to validate resulting bivariate parameter values using an efficient graphical method of data capture. VISCONS can be used for parameter capture beyond the scope of learning curves or system dynamics. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.", "publicationTitle": "Expert Systems with Applications", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2013", "volume": "40", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "715-721", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1016/j.eswa.2012.08.015", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84867687435&partnerID=40&md5=bc697a58f549cd3bb91fa3ee6acef945", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Group model building" }, { "tag": "Parameterisation" }, { "tag": "Police" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" }, { "tag": "VISCONS" }, { "tag": "Visual elicitation" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "VHP5FR2G", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/VHP5FR2G", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/VHP5FR2G", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Shih and Tseng", "parsedDate": "2014", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "VHP5FR2G", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Cost-benefit analysis of sustainable energy development using life-cycle co-benefits assessment and the system dynamics approach", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Y.-H.", "lastName": "Shih" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.-H.", "lastName": "Tseng" } ], "abstractNote": "A novel Air Resource Co-benefits model was developed to estimate the social benefits of a Sustainable Energy Policy, involving both renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency improvements (EEI). The costs and benefits of the policy during 2010-2030 were quantified. A system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the amount of energy saving under the scenario of promoting both RE and EEI. The life-cycle co-reductions of five criteria pollutants (PM10, SO2, NOx, CO, and ozone) and greenhouse gas are estimated by assuming coal fired as marginal electricity suppliers. Moreover, a concise life table approach was developed to estimate averted years of life lost (YOLL). The results showed that YOLL totaling 0.11-0.21years (41-78days) per capita, or premature deaths totaling 126,507-251,169, is expected to be averted during 2010-2030 under the RE plus EEI scenario. Specifically, because of the higher investment cost, the benefit-cost ratio of 1.9-2.1 under the EEI scenario is lower than the 7.2-7.9 under the RE scenario. This difference reveals that RE is more socially beneficial than EEI. The net benefit of the RE and EEI scenarios during 2010-2030 totaled approximately US$ 5,972-6,893 per person or US$ 170-190 per MWh. To summarize, this study presents a new approach to estimate averted YOLL, and finds that the health benefits can justify the compliance costs associated with the Sustainable Energy Policy. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.", "publicationTitle": "Applied Energy", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2014", "volume": "119", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "57-66", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.12.031", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84892958458&partnerID=40&md5=f5b26786473f28efc74a97c72bac1af9", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Co-benefits" }, { "tag": "Energy efficiency" }, { "tag": "Learning curve" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" }, { "tag": "renewable energy" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "VC6C863D", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/VC6C863D", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/VC6C863D", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jeon and Shin", "parsedDate": "2014", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "VC6C863D", "version": 4, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Long-term renewable energy technology valuation using system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulation: Photovoltaic technology case", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "C.", "lastName": "Jeon" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Shin" } ], "abstractNote": "A new long-term technology valuation method for renewable energy technologies that combines system dynamics with Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Existing valuation methods using surveys or cash flows are suitable for technologies characterized by short lifecycles and little uncertainty, but are not appropriate for renewable energy technologies affected by various uncertainties over the long term. A variety of macro- and micro-factors interact in sophisticated ways, create uncertainty, and make valuation difficult. System dynamics provides a good method of structuring these complex interactions. Monte Carlo simulation can consider long-term uncertainties in valuation. Using the advantages of both methods, our method can improve not only the long-term reliability of probabilistic technology valuation but also R&D decisions and investments on both the private and public sides. Korean photovoltaic power generation, a representative renewable technology, is used as an example. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.", "publicationTitle": "Energy", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2014", "volume": "66", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "447-457", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1016/j.energy.2014.01.050", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84896392248&partnerID=40&md5=52f21ca722972fa7f7cf28f50aac23e7", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Monte carlo simulation" }, { "tag": "Photovoltaic power generation" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" }, { "tag": "Technology valuation" }, { "tag": "Two-factor learning curve" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "C5IUJJNT", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/C5IUJJNT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/C5IUJJNT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Jiang et al.", "parsedDate": "2012", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "C5IUJJNT", "version": 4, "itemType": "conferencePaper", "title": "System dynamics application in organizational learning evaluation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Jiang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Onkham" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Zeng" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "L.", "lastName": "Rabelo" } ], "abstractNote": "During these economic times, changes of missions, knowledge and technology have become important for organizations to implement valid learning methods through their employees in order to have success and higher levels of performance. The Learning Curve (LC) typically represents an individual's performance in repetitive tasks, leading to reduced process loss due to individual's inability in the first production cycles. Learning organization initiates from individual level, team level and organization level, respectively. This paper applies systems thinking using a system dynamics model for individual learning. Then, an agent-based modeling is implemented to evaluate performance among individuals and teams, which represents organizational learning. The potential of this study reflects learning performance on both individual and organizational levels. A case study related to the transition of NASA from the NASA Space Shuttle to the new Space Launch System (SLS) which includes the SLS-ETF and the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) will be revised in order to draw conclusions for large organizations.", "proceedingsTitle": "", "conferenceName": "62nd IIE Annual Conference and Expo 2012", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012", "eventPlace": "", "volume": "", "issue": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "pages": "1594-1603", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84900334816&partnerID=40&md5=b50e8cb95ffdbb8ba942e8ff282232a4", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "Scopus", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Learning curves" }, { "tag": "Organizational learning" }, { "tag": "System dynamics" }, { "tag": "Training and education" } ], "collections": [ "RG4HIZBW" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } }, { "key": "SFADJ3S5", "version": 4, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 368181, "name": "System dynamics - Vimmerstedt - July 2015", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/SFADJ3S5", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/system_dynamics_-_vimmerstedt_-_july_2015/items/SFADJ3S5", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/368181/items/HE59FGQ2", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2103150, "username": "jwalkernlr", "name": "Jen Walker", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jwalkernlr", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "SFADJ3S5", "version": 4, "parentItem": "HE59FGQ2", "itemType": "note", "note": "

Export Date: 2 July 2015

", "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z", "dateModified": "2015-07-02T18:54:05Z" } } ]