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A distinction is made between mechanistic and statistical models, and the relative merits of each are considered. The question of “when do aquatic systems models provide accurate and useful predictions?” is addressed, implying some guidelines for model development. It is proposed that, in general, ecological models only provide management-relevant predictions of the behaviour of real systems when there are strong physical (as opposed to chemical or ecological) drivers. Developments over the past 15 years have included changes in technology, changes in the modelling community and changes in the context in which modelling is conducted: the implications of each are briefly discussed. Current trends include increased uptake of best practice guidelines, increasing integration of models, operationalisation, data assimilation, development of improved tools for skill assessment, and application of models to new management questions and in new social contexts. Deeper merging of statistical and mechanistic modelling approaches through such techniques as Bayesian Melding, Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling and surrogate modelling is identified as a key emerging area. Finally, it is suggested that there is a need to systematically identify areas in which our current models are inadequate. We do not yet know for which categories of problems well-implemented aquatic systems models can (or cannot) be expected to accurately predict observational data and system behaviour. This can be addressed through better modelling and publishing practices.", "publicationTitle": "Environmental Modelling & Software", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "November 2014", "volume": "61", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "287-296", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Environmental Modelling & Software", "DOI": "10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.01.009", "citationKey": "Robson2014", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815214000188", "accessDate": "2014-10-10T12:39:15Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1364-8152", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "00004", "tags": [ { "tag": "Biogeochemical modelling" }, { "tag": "Developments" }, { "tag": "Ecological models" }, { "tag": "Knowledge gaps" }, { "tag": "Modelling philosophy" }, { "tag": "Progress" } ], "collections": [ "2Y2BAN7T" ], "relations": { "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/35215/items/TVXMZX7L" }, "dateAdded": "2014-10-10T12:39:15Z", "dateModified": "2017-08-26T19:45:11Z" } }, { "key": "GTBM7PGN", "version": 9466, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 35215, "name": "NITROLIMIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/nitrolimit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/35215/items/GTBM7PGN", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/nitrolimit/items/GTBM7PGN", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 483836, "username": "Sebastian.Krause", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/sebastian.krause", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 498149, "username": "petzoldt", "name": "Thomas Petzoldt", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/petzoldt", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Schauser and Chorus", "parsedDate": "2009-04", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "GTBM7PGN", "version": 9466, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Water and phosphorus mass balance of Lake Tegel and Schlachtensee – A modelling approach", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Inke", "lastName": "Schauser" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ingrid", "lastName": "Chorus" } ], "abstractNote": "Management models for aquatic systems can be used to determine which measures in the watershed or in the water body have been effective and/or which one should be used in future. The newly developed management models presented in the following for Lake Tegel and Schlachtensee are empirical and lake specific. The values for the unknown factors are estimated by an iterative process using optimisation routines and sensitivity analysis methods. The resulting models describe the water and phosphorus balance of each lake. The Lake Tegel water balance model calculates the unknown water inflow from the River Havel depending on the other main in- and outflows with very good validation results. The phosphorus models of both lakes quantify mixing of the upper and lower water body as well as sedimentation and release from the sediment as functions of measured variables. For Lake Tegel, management scenarios were run indicating effective management interventions. For Lake Schlachtensee, the phosphorus model captured the variations in the hypolimnion well but produced poorer results for the epilimnion because of unknown external phosphorus loads. 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