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Available by request.", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/345401/items/853T79MQ", "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/6KA3292V" }, "dateAdded": "2015-05-04T21:55:10Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:14:50Z" } }, { "key": "I4ATI6SZ", "version": 481, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/I4ATI6SZ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/I4ATI6SZ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 2440180, "username": "jacqueline_kang", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/jacqueline_kang", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Hanson", "parsedDate": "2015-05", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "I4ATI6SZ", "version": 481, "itemType": "presentation", "title": "The Age of Em", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "presenter", "firstName": "Robin", "lastName": "Hanson" } ], "abstractNote": "", "presentationType": "", "date": "May 2015", "meetingName": "INSTED festival", "place": "Los Angeles, CA", "series": "", "sessionTitle": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/345401/items/ATNSEXRE" }, "dateAdded": "2015-05-19T15:17:25Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:14:27Z" } }, { "key": "V6ERAMHV", "version": 481, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/V6ERAMHV", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/V6ERAMHV", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/XRFRSXS2", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "V6ERAMHV", "version": 481, "parentItem": "XRFRSXS2", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "276130023_Collective_wisdom_Methods_of_confidence_interval_aggregation", "accessDate": "2015-05-15T18:08:15Z", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/276130023_Collective_wisdom_Methods_of_confidence_interval_aggregation", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/EJV2JSC3" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:36Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:14:23Z" } }, { "key": "XRFRSXS2", "version": 481, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/XRFRSXS2", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/XRFRSXS2", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Lyon et al.", "parsedDate": "2015-08", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "XRFRSXS2", "version": 481, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Collective wisdom: Methods of confidence interval aggregation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Aidan", "lastName": "Lyon" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Bonnie C.", "lastName": "Wintle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mark", "lastName": "Burgman" } ], "abstractNote": "We report the results of a meta-analysis study of the relative accuracies for a range of methods for aggregating confidence interval estimates of unknown quantities. We found that a simple “trim-and-average” method—that is, remove outliers and then average—produced the most accurate estimates. Our results show that more complicated methods of confidence interval aggregation, which factor in confidence levels and estimate imprecisions, do not produce estimates more accurate than those produced by the simple trim-and-average method.", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Business Research", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "August 2015", "volume": "68", "issue": "8", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1759-1767", "series": "Special Issue on Simple Versus Complex Forecasting", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Journal of Business Research", "DOI": "10.1016/j.jbusres.2014.08.012", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315001526", "accessDate": "2015-06-16T16:37:14Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0148-2963", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Collective wisdom", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Accuracy", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Forecast", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Meta-analysis", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Trim-and-average", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/9GTS87JM", "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/345401/items/R2GD9E4P" }, "dateAdded": "2015-12-08T15:34:49Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:14:23Z" } }, { "key": "38BPZAU8", "version": 487, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/38BPZAU8", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/38BPZAU8", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 27931, "username": "klaskey", "name": "Kathryn Laskey", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/klaskey", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Steyerberg et al.", "parsedDate": "2010-01", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "38BPZAU8", "version": 487, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Assessing the performance of prediction models: a framework for some traditional and novel measures", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ewout W.", "lastName": "Steyerberg" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andrew J.", "lastName": "Vickers" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Nancy R.", "lastName": "Cook" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Gerds" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mithat", "lastName": "Gonen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Nancy", "lastName": "Obuchowski" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael J.", "lastName": "Pencina" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael W.", "lastName": "Kattan" } ], "abstractNote": "The performance of prediction models can be assessed using a variety of different methods and metrics. Traditional measures for binary and survival outcomes include the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic for discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration., Several new measures have recently been proposed that can be seen as refinements of discrimination measures, including variants of the c statistic for survival, reclassification tables, net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Moreover, decision–analytic measures have been proposed, including decision curves to plot the net benefit achieved by making decisions based on model predictions., We aimed to define the role of these relatively novel approaches in the evaluation of the performance of prediction models. For illustration we present a case study of predicting the presence of residual tumor versus benign tissue in patients with testicular cancer (n=544 for model development, n=273 for external validation)., We suggest that reporting discrimination and calibration will always be important for a prediction model. Decision-analytic measures should be reported if the predictive model is to be used for making clinical decisions. Other measures of performance may be warranted in specific applications, such as reclassification metrics to gain insight into the value of adding a novel predictor to an established model.", "publicationTitle": "Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2010-1", "volume": "21", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "128-138", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Epidemiology", "DOI": "10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181c30fb2", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3575184/", "accessDate": "2015-05-14T18:59:46Z", "PMID": "20010215", "PMCID": "PMC3575184", "ISSN": "1044-3983", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Assessing the performance of prediction models", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "PubMed Central", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/QCIV8JGH" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "4JAEFMAS", "version": 487, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/4JAEFMAS", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/4JAEFMAS", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 27931, "username": "klaskey", "name": "Kathryn Laskey", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/klaskey", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Sonnemann et al.", "parsedDate": "2013-07-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "4JAEFMAS", "version": 487, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ulrich", "lastName": "Sonnemann" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Colin F.", "lastName": "Camerer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Craig R.", "lastName": "Fox" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Thomas", "lastName": "Langer" } ], "abstractNote": "A fundamental debate in social sciences concerns how individual judgments and choices, resulting from psychological mechanisms, are manifested in collective economic behavior. Economists emphasize the capacity of markets to aggregate information distributed among traders into rational equilibrium prices. However, psychologists have identified pervasive and systematic biases in individual judgment that they generally assume will affect collective behavior. In particular, recent studies have found that judged likelihoods of possible events vary systematically with the way the entire event space is partitioned, with probabilities of each of N partitioned events biased toward 1/N. Thus, combining events into a common partition lowers perceived probability, and unpacking events into separate partitions increases their perceived probability. We look for evidence of such bias in various prediction markets, in which prices can be interpreted as probabilities of upcoming events. In two highly controlled experimental studies, we find clear evidence of partition dependence in a 2-h laboratory experiment and a field experiment on National Basketball Association (NBA) and Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA World Cup) sports events spanning several weeks. We also find evidence consistent with partition dependence in nonexperimental field data from prediction markets for economic derivatives (guessing the values of important macroeconomic statistics) and horse races. Results in any one of the studies might be explained by a specialized alternative theory, but no alternative theories can explain the results of all four studies. We conclude that psychological biases in individual judgment can affect market prices, and understanding those effects requires combining a variety of methods from psychology and economics.", "publicationTitle": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2013-07-01", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "PNAS", "DOI": "10.1073/pnas.1206326110", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2013/06/26/1206326110", "accessDate": "2013-07-04T16:12:03Z", "PMID": "23818628", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0027-8424, 1091-6490", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "www.pnas.org", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "behavioral economics", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "judgment bias", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/ERSC42PK" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "S8QW3AZ5", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/S8QW3AZ5", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/S8QW3AZ5", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/38BPZAU8", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "S8QW3AZ5", "version": 477, "parentItem": "38BPZAU8", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "PubMed Central Link", "accessDate": "2015-05-14T18:59:46Z", "url": "http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3575184/", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/P4UW8BQE" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "NZDRKMIT", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/NZDRKMIT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/NZDRKMIT", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/38BPZAU8", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "NZDRKMIT", "version": 477, "parentItem": "38BPZAU8", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "linked_url", "title": "PubMed Central Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2015-05-14T18:59:46Z", "url": "http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3575184/pdf/nihms438237.pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "tags": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/CH9NIJXR" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "X4DQK9BS", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/X4DQK9BS", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/X4DQK9BS", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Cowgill and Zitzewitz", "parsedDate": "2014-07", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "X4DQK9BS", "version": 477, "itemType": "manuscript", "title": "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Bo", "lastName": "Cowgill" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Eric", "lastName": "Zitzewitz" } ], "abstractNote": "We examine data from prediction markets run by Google, Ford Motor Company and an anonymous basic materials conglomerate (Firm X). Despite theoretically adverse conditions, we find these markets are relatively efficient, and improve upon the forecasts of experts at all three firms by as much as a 25% reduction in mean squared error. The most notable inefficiency is an optimism bias in the markets at Google. The inefficiencies that do exist generally become smaller over time. More experienced traders and those with higher past performance trade against the identified inefficiencies, suggesting that the markets’ efficiency improves because traders gain experience and less skilled traders exit the market.", "manuscriptType": "", "institution": "", "place": "", "date": "July 2014", "numPages": "51", "number": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.restud.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/MS14671manuscript.pdf", "accessDate": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/SDP2C5U6" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "4NR2SZIU", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/4NR2SZIU", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/4NR2SZIU", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Hanson", "parsedDate": "2002", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "4NR2SZIU", "version": 477, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Robin", "lastName": "Hanson" } ], "abstractNote": "In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals.", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Prediction Markets", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2002", "volume": "1", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "2007", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "CiteSeer", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/42K7GMN7" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "56UXTM73", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/56UXTM73", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/56UXTM73", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Coughlan et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "56UXTM73", "version": 477, "itemType": "report", "title": "Innovations in Defense Acquisition: Asymmetric Information, Mechanism Design and Prediction Markets", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Coughlan" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "W.", "lastName": "Gates" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Arkes" } ], "abstractNote": "", "reportNumber": "", "reportType": "", "institution": "DTIC Document", "place": "", "date": "2011", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesNumber": "", "pages": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA563409", "accessDate": "2013-02-09T14:56:47Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Innovations in Defense Acquisition", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/63812/items/ACT9SPIU" }, "dateAdded": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z", "dateModified": "2018-07-12T19:06:40Z" } }, { "key": "XGMPFIII", "version": 477, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 345401, "name": "SciCast", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/345401/items/XGMPFIII", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/scicast/items/XGMPFIII", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 206459, "username": "ctwardy", "name": "Charles Twardy", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/ctwardy", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Chinn and Huffman", "parsedDate": "2009", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "XGMPFIII", "version": 477, "itemType": "report", "title": "Prediction markets: A review with an experimentally based recommendation for Navy force-shaping application", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. 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