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            "pages": "475-481",
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            "abstractNote": "Dans une modélisation intégrée des impacts, l'objectif est de tester plusieurs scénarios d'entrées de modèle et/ ou d'identifier l'effet de l'incertitude des entrées sur les sorties de modèle. Dans les deux cas, un grand nombre de simulations de modèle sont nécessaires. Cela reste bien évidemment infaisable avec un modèle de Chimie-Transport à cause du temps CPU demandé. Pour surmonter cette difficulté, deux approches ont été étudiées dans cette thèse. La première consiste à construire un modèle réduit. Deux techniques ont été utilisées : la première est la méthode POD (Proper Orthogonal Decomposition) liée au comportement statistique du système. La seconde méthode est une méthode efficace de prétabulation fondée sur la troncature d'un développement multivariables de la relation Entrées/ sorties associé au modèle. La seconde est relative à la réduction du nombre de simulations demandé par la méthode Monte-Carlo classique de propagation d'incertitude. La technique utilisée ici est basée sur une représentation d'une sortie de modèle incertaine comme un développement de polynômes orthonormaux de variables d'entrées. Un autre point clé dans la modélisation intégrée d'impacts est de développer des stratégies de réduction des émissions en calculant des matrices de transfert sur plusieurs années de simulation. Une méthode efficace de calcul de ces matrices a été ainsi développée, notamment en définissant des scénarios \"chimiquement\" représentatifs. L'ensemble de ces méthodes a été appliqué au modèle POLAIR3D, modèle de Chimie-Transport développé dans le cadre de cette thèse",
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            "abstractNote": "Il est désormais reconnu que les éléments clés qui caractériseront les prochains 30 ans de développement socio-économique seront une croissance démographique sans précédents, des problématiques environnementales dues aux activités anthropiques et la création de valeur par l'innovation de produit, service et procédé (PSP). Dans ce contexte, l'évaluation environnementale, qui a déjà acquis pendant les dernières années un rôle important dans la conception et l'innovation, deviendra primordiale. Plusieurs concepts, du Développement Durable à l'Ecologie Industrielle en passant par l'Eco-Efficience, et différents outils, de l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie au Management du Cycle de Vie en passant pas l'Evaluation des Risques, ont déjà été développés pour contribuer à ce qu'on appelle l'éco-innovation, autrement dit l'innovation selon des critères environnementaux. Pourtant, la mise en œuvre de ces approches souffre encore de deux principales limitations : les résultats des outils d'évaluation environnementale (par exemple de l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie) sont souvent controversés à cause de la méconnaissance de leurs incertitudes faute d'une méthodologie pertinente; l'application des outils à la conception et l'innovation des PSP nécessite encore un cadre méthodologique et des procédures bien définies; les approches pour l'éco-innovation sont souvent fragmentaires et non structurées. Nous proposons une contribution à la résolution de ces problèmes, à savoir : une méthode d'Evaluation des Impacts du Cycle de Vie qui permet de prendre en compte l'ensemble des incertitudes au sens large (l'imprécision, la variabilité et l'incertitude au sens strict), l'ébauche d'une méthode de conception de l'ecoinnovation des produits, services et procédés, qui intègre l'évaluation de l'incertitude des impacts. La faisabilité des propositions méthodologiques est partiellement testée dans l'application exhaustive de l'Analyse du Cycle de Vie à plusieurs scénarios de production d'électricité par combustion et co-combustion de charbon et biomasse.",
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