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Joseph Biden’s 2020 election shifted them dramatically upward. We study firms’ stock-price movements in reaction. As expected, the 2016 election boosted carbon-intensive firms. Surprisingly, firms with climate-responsible strategies also gained, especially those firms held by long-run investors. Such investors appear to have bet on a ‘‘boomerang’’ in climate policy. Harbingers of a boomerang already appeared during Trump’s term. The 2020 election marked its arrival. 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A careful assessment of the benefits and costs of rolling back an existing regulation can and should inform such decisions. When assessing the potential rollback of an existing regulation, analysts can often learn from the regulation’s implementation through retrospective analysis as well as from advances in scientific knowledge. We discuss recent actions concerning the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) to illustrate the potential lessons from doing so. In the case of MATS, advances in science have shed light on broader exposure pathways and previously unquantified health effects, suggesting that the benefits of reducing mercury emissions may exceed previous estimates. At the same time, changes in the energy sector have altered the mix of fuels used to produce electricity, which impacts both the benefits and costs of the regulation.", "reportNumber": "2021-88", "reportType": "Discussion Paper", "institution": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program", "place": "", "date": "January 2021", "seriesTitle": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program Discussion Paper", "seriesNumber": "", "pages": "10", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "dp_21_88", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RK7772EX" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-12-18T21:01:02Z", "dateModified": "2021-01-05T14:51:53Z" } }, { "key": "56DIGSLY", "version": 268, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/56DIGSLY", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/56DIGSLY", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/MFD4MHTR", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "56DIGSLY", "version": 268, "parentItem": "MFD4MHTR", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_file", "title": "Aldy and Stavins - 2020 - Rolling the Dice in the Corridors of Power Willia.pdf", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Aldy and Stavins - 2020 - Rolling the Dice in the Corridors of Power Willia.pdf", "md5": "e94836cbbc7f0a2c89e4565cd9d56405", "mtime": 1595509920324, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-07-23T13:15:20Z", "dateModified": "2020-07-23T13:15:20Z" } }, { "key": "MFD4MHTR", "version": 266, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/MFD4MHTR", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/MFD4MHTR", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Aldy and Stavins", "parsedDate": "2020-07", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "MFD4MHTR", "version": 266, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Rolling the Dice in the Corridors of Power: William Nordhaus's Impacts on Climate Change Policy", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Joseph E.", "lastName": "Aldy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Robert N.", "lastName": "Stavins" } ], "abstractNote": "The seminal contributions of William Nordhaus to scholarship on the long-run macroeconomics of global climate change are clear. Much more challenging to identify are the impacts of Nordhaus and his research on public policy in this domain. We examine three conceptually distinct pathways for that influence: his personal participation in the policy world; his research’s direct contribution to the formulation and evaluation of public policy; and his research’s indirect role informing public policy. Many of the themes that emerge in this assessment of the contributions of one of the most important economists to have worked in the domain of climate change analysis apply more broadly to the roles played by other leading economists in this and other policy domains.", "publicationTitle": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program Discussion Paper Series", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "July 2020", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RK7772EX" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-07-23T13:12:37Z", "dateModified": "2020-07-23T13:14:38Z" } }, { "key": "SX7ULZZ3", "version": 260, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/SX7ULZZ3", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/SX7ULZZ3", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/ANU7SLQM", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "SX7ULZZ3", "version": 260, "parentItem": "ANU7SLQM", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_file", "title": "Metcalf and Stock - 2020 - Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes.pdf", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Metcalf and Stock - 2020 - Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes.pdf", "md5": "3fa7edc413d8cca5d0060cf302873d10", "mtime": 1586807175174, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-04-13T19:52:31Z", "dateModified": "2020-04-13T19:52:31Z" } }, { "key": "ANU7SLQM", "version": 258, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/ANU7SLQM", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/ANU7SLQM", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Metcalf and Stock", "parsedDate": "2020-04", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "ANU7SLQM", "version": 258, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Carbon Taxes", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gilbert", "lastName": "Metcalf" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "James H.", "lastName": "Stock" } ], "abstractNote": "Economists have long argued that a carbon tax is a cost effective way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Increasingly, members of Congress agree. In 2019, seven carbon tax bills were filed in Congress (Kaufman et al., 2019). In addition, the Climate Leadership Council has built bipartisan support for a carbon tax and dividend plan (Baker et al., 2017). \nIn contrast, the Trump Administration is retreating from any climate policy and has taken steps to withdraw from the Paris Accord, citing heavy economic costs to the U.S. economy from meeting the U.S. commitments made during the Obama Administration. In his June 1, 2017 statement on the Accord, for example, the President claimed that the cost to the economy would be “close to $3 trillion in lost GDP and 6.5 million industrial jobs…” (Trump, 2017). \nWhat is the basis for claims about the economic impact of a carbon tax? Economic impacts of a carbon tax typically are estimated using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (as was done for the report on which Trump based his claims). These models, while helpful, make many simplifying assumptions to remain tractable, including optimization, representative agents, and simplified expectations and dynamics, so at a minimum those estimates would ideally be complemented by empirical evidence on the macroeconomic effects of carbon taxes in practice. With carbon taxes in place in twenty-five countries around the world, including some dating to the early 1990s, empirical analysis of historical experience is now possible. 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2020 - Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growt.pdf", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Stock - 2020 - Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growt.pdf", "md5": "66dcc3de0701f720870468d5bc5a580f", "mtime": 1586548084795, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-04-10T19:51:21Z", "dateModified": "2020-04-10T19:51:21Z" } }, { "key": "THZ8BHSB", "version": 248, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/THZ8BHSB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/THZ8BHSB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Stock", "parsedDate": "2020-04", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "THZ8BHSB", "version": 248, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Climate Change, Climate Policy, and Economic Growth", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "James H.", "lastName": "Stock" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program Discussion Paper Series", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "April 2020", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RK7772EX" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-04-10T19:49:17Z", "dateModified": "2020-04-10T19:50:29Z" } }, { "key": "B89A2GKC", "version": 245, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/B89A2GKC", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/B89A2GKC", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Sunstein", "parsedDate": "2020-04", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "B89A2GKC", "version": 245, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Internalities, Externalities, and Fuel Economy", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Cass R.", "lastName": "Sunstein" } ], "abstractNote": "It is standard to think that corrective taxes, responding to externalities, are generally or always better than regulatory mandates, but in the face of behavioral market failures, that conclusion might not be right. Fuel economy and energy efficiency mandates are possible examples. Because such mandates might produce billions of dollars in annual consumer savings, they might have very high net benefits, complicating the choice between such mandates and externality-correcting taxes (such as carbon taxes). The net benefits of mandates that simultaneously reduce internalities and externalities might exceed the net benefits of taxes that reduce externalities alone, even if mandates turn out to be a highly inefficient way of reducing externalities. An important qualification is that corrective taxes might be designed to reduce both externalities and internalities, in\nwhich case they would almost certainly be preferable to a regulatory mandate.", "publicationTitle": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "April, 2020", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program Discussion Paper Series", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RK7772EX" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-04-10T18:24:20Z", "dateModified": "2020-04-10T18:34:16Z" } }, { "key": "6Y7EIJV6", "version": 242, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/6Y7EIJV6", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/6Y7EIJV6", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/B89A2GKC", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "6Y7EIJV6", "version": 242, "parentItem": "B89A2GKC", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_file", "title": "Sunstein - 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2020 - Looking Back at Fifty Years of the Clean Air Act.pdf", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Aldy et al. - 2020 - Looking Back at Fifty Years of the Clean Air Act.pdf", "md5": "9caf01cfdcbb80996eaf13f74386cf53", "mtime": 1585253367500, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-03-26T20:13:25Z", "dateModified": "2020-03-26T20:13:25Z" } }, { "key": "EJBAW2YA", "version": 232, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 283414, "name": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/283414/items/EJBAW2YA", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/harvard_environmental_economics_program_publications/items/EJBAW2YA", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 4257038, "username": "CBillings", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cbillings", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Aldy et al.", "parsedDate": "2020-03", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "EJBAW2YA", "version": 232, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Looking Back at Fifty Years of the Clean Air Act", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Joseph E.", "lastName": "Aldy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Maximillian", "lastName": "Auffhammer" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Maureen", "lastName": "Cropper" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Arthur", "lastName": "Fraas" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Richard", "lastName": "Morgenstern" } ], "abstractNote": "Since 1970, transportation, power generation, and manufacturing have dramatically transformed as air pollutant emissions have fallen significantly. To evaluate the causal impacts of the Clean Air Act on these changes, we synthesize and review retrospective analyses of air quality regulations. The geographic heterogeneity in regulatory stringency common to many regulations has important implications for emissions, public health, compliance costs, and employment. Cap-and-trade programs have delivered greater emission reductions at lower cost than conventional regulatory mandates, but policy practice has fallen short of the cost-effective ideal. Implementing regulations in imperfectly competitive markets have also influenced the Clean Air Act’s benefits and costs.", "publicationTitle": "Harvard Environmental Economics Program Discussion Paper Series", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "March 2020", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "RK7772EX" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2020-03-26T20:10:08Z", "dateModified": "2020-03-26T20:13:14Z" } } ]