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M. L.", "lastName": "Wigley" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "S. C. B.", "lastName": "Raper" } ], "abstractNote": "Intercomparisons of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and carbon cycle models are important for galvanizing our current scientific knowledge to project future climate. Interpreting such intercomparisons faces major challenges, not least because different models have been forced with different sets of forcing agents. Here, we show how an emulation approach with MAGICC6 can address such problems. In a companion paper (Meinshausen et al., 2011a), we show how the lower complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC6 can be calibrated to emulate, with considerable accuracy, globally aggregated characteristics of these more complex models. Building on that, we examine here the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 3 results (CMIP3). If forcing agents missed by individual AOGCMs in CMIP3 are considered, this reduces ensemble average temperature change from pre-industrial times to 2100 under SRES A1B by 0.4 °C. Differences in the results from the 1980 to 1999 base period (as reported in IPCC AR4) to 2100 are negligible, however, although there are some differences in the trajectories over the 21st century. In a second part of this study, we consider the new RCP scenarios that are to be investigated under the forthcoming CMIP5 intercomparison for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. For the highest scenario, RCP8.5, relative to pre-industrial levels, we project a median warming of around 4.6 °C by 2100 and more than 7 °C by 2300. For the lowest RCP scenario, RCP3-PD, the corresponding warming is around 1.5 °C by 2100, decreasing to around 1.1 °C by 2300 based on our AOGCM and carbon cycle model emulations. Implied cumulative CO2 emissions over the 21st century for RCP8.5 and RCP3-PD are 1881 GtC (1697 to 2034 GtC, 80% uncertainty range) and 381 GtC (334 to 488 GtC), when prescribing CO2 concentrations and accounting for uncertainty in the carbon cycle. Lastly, we assess the reasons why a previous MAGICC version (4.2) used in IPCC AR4 gave roughly 10% larger warmings over the 21st century compared to the CMIP3 average. We find that forcing differences and the use of slightly too high climate sensitivities inferred from idealized high-forcing runs were the major reasons for this difference.", "publicationTitle": "Atmos. Chem. Phys.", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "February 16, 2011", "volume": "11", "issue": "4", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1457-1471", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Atmos. Chem. 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Ecological economics brings together and connects different disciplines, within the natural and social sciences but especially between these broad areas. Ecological economics presents a more pluralistic approach to the study of environmental problems and policy solutions, characterised by systems perspectives, adequate physical and biological contexts, and a focus on long-term environmental sustainability.", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2007", "publisher": "Nova Publishers", "place": "", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "numPages": "384", "ISBN": "9781600219412", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Google Books", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Business & Economics / Economics / General", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/260855/items/8DVCS2EV" }, "dateAdded": "2015-01-26T10:40:32Z", "dateModified": "2015-04-08T09:50:57Z" } }, { "key": "TKRSKZCW", "version": 204, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 260855, "name": "ERISC", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/TKRSKZCW", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc/items/TKRSKZCW", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/WA9IV7DX", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1713870, "username": "Nicole Grunewald", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/nicole_grunewald", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "TKRSKZCW", "version": 204, "parentItem": "WA9IV7DX", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Snapshot", "accessDate": "2015-01-26T09:34:10Z", "url": "http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=2362154", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "papers.html", "md5": "9587e9e4e071a585d1b06fb986496be7", "mtime": 1422264850380, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-01-26T09:34:10Z", "dateModified": "2015-04-08T09:50:55Z" } }, { "key": "WA9IV7DX", "version": 204, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 260855, "name": "ERISC", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/WA9IV7DX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc/items/WA9IV7DX", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1713870, "username": "Nicole Grunewald", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/nicole_grunewald", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Dominguez-Faus et al.", "parsedDate": "2014-01-25", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "WA9IV7DX", "version": 204, "itemType": "report", "title": "Science and the Stock Market: Investors’ Recognition of Unburnable Carbon", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Rosa", "lastName": "Dominguez-Faus" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Paul A.", "lastName": "Griffin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Amy Myers", "lastName": "Jaffe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "David H.", "lastName": "Lont" } ], "abstractNote": "How well does the press serve the public and company stakeholders when it comes to reporting significant discoveries from science? This paper documents the stock market’s reaction to findings reported in a 2009 article in the highly prestigious Nature journal of science reporting that only a fraction of the world’s existing oil, gas, and coal reserves can be emitted if global warming by 2050 is not to exceed 2oC above pre-industrial levels. The Nature article is now one of the most cited environmental science studies in recent years. What the scientists did not say, but could be reasonably understood from the paper, was that such knowledge could cause havoc to fossil fuel companies’ stock prices, whose value hinges significantly on their recoverable reserves. Our analysis indicates that this publication prompted at most an average drop in stock price of 2% for our sample of the 63 largest U.S. oil and gas companies. Later, in 2012-2013, the press “discovered” this article, and then wrote hundreds of stories on the grim consequences of unburnable carbon for fossil fuel companies. Our evidence shows only a small negative reaction to these later stories, mostly in the two weeks following their publication. The overall stock price reaction to all stories from 2009 to the present represents a shareholder loss of $27 billion or 2.48% of the total market capitalization of our sample. This limited but detectable market response contrasts with the predictions of some analysts and commentators of a substantial decline in the shareholder value of fossil fuel firms from a carbon bubble. Our paper discusses possible reasons for this discrepency.", "reportNumber": "", "reportType": "SSRN Scholarly Paper", "institution": "Social Science Research Network", "place": "Rochester, NY", "date": "2014/01/25", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesNumber": "", "pages": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=2362154", "accessDate": "2014-05-08T19:36:17Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Science and the Stock Market", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "papers.ssrn.com", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Meinshausen", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Nature science journal", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "U.S. oil and gas companies", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "event study", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "media attention", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "stranded assets", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "unburnable carbon", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "dc:replaces": "http://zotero.org/groups/260855/items/29C6DX3D" }, "dateAdded": "2014-05-08T19:36:17Z", "dateModified": "2015-04-08T09:50:55Z" } }, { "key": "QKDK687Q", "version": 203, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 260855, "name": "ERISC", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/QKDK687Q", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc/items/QKDK687Q", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/ICGZKSAA", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1713870, "username": "Nicole Grunewald", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/nicole_grunewald", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "QKDK687Q", "version": 203, "parentItem": "ICGZKSAA", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Snapshot", "accessDate": "2015-03-05T12:49:04Z", "url": "http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2384.html", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "nclimate2384.html", "md5": "eb08c4aa69e5d1191e222e9167d8fdbe", "mtime": 1425559745087, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2015-03-05T12:49:04Z", "dateModified": "2015-03-05T12:49:04Z" } }, { "key": "ICGZKSAA", "version": 202, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 260855, "name": "ERISC", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/260855/items/ICGZKSAA", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/erisc/items/ICGZKSAA", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1713870, "username": "Nicole Grunewald", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/nicole_grunewald", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Raupach et al.", "parsedDate": "2014-10", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "ICGZKSAA", "version": 202, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael R.", "lastName": "Raupach" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Steven J.", "lastName": "Davis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Glen P.", "lastName": "Peters" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Robbie M.", "lastName": "Andrew" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Josep G.", "lastName": "Canadell" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Philippe", "lastName": "Ciais" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Pierre", "lastName": "Friedlingstein" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Frank", "lastName": "Jotzo" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Detlef P.", "lastName": "van Vuuren" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Corinne", "lastName": "Le Quéré" } ], "abstractNote": "Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.", "publicationTitle": "Nature Climate Change", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "October 2014", "volume": "4", "issue": "10", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "873-879", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Nature Clim. 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