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Conditional autoregressive (CAR) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models are network-based models (also known as graphical models) specifically designed to model spatially autocorrelated data based on neighborhood relationships. We identify and discuss six different types of practical ecological inference using CAR and SAR models, including: (1) model selection, (2) spatial regression, (3) estimation of autocorrelation, (4) estimation of other connectivity parameters, (5) spatial prediction, and (6) spatial smoothing. We compare CAR and SAR models, showing their development and connection to partial correlations. Special cases, such as the intrinsic autoregressive model (IAR), are described. Conditional autoregressive and SAR models depend on weight matrices, whose practical development uses neighborhood definition and row-standardization. Weight matrices can also include ecological covariates and connectivity structures, which we emphasize, but have been rarely used. Trends in harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) in southeastern Alaska from 463 polygons, some with missing data, are used to illustrate the six inference types. We develop a variety of weight matrices and CAR and SAR spatial regression models are fit using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods. Profile likelihood graphs illustrate inference for covariance parameters. The same data set is used for both prediction and smoothing, and the relative merits of each are discussed. We show the nonstationary variances and correlations of a CAR model and demonstrate the effect of row-standardization. We include several take-home messages for CAR and SAR models, including (1) choosing between CAR and IAR models, (2) modeling ecological effects in the covariance matrix, (3) the appeal of spatial smoothing, and (4) how to handle isolated neighbors. We highlight several reasons why ecologists will want to make use of autoregressive models, both directly and in hierarchical models, and not only in explicit spatial settings, but also for more general connectivity models.", "publicationTitle": "Ecological Monographs", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2018", "volume": "88", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "36-59", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/ecm.1283", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ecm.1283", "accessDate": "2026-04-10T14:35:35Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1557-7015", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "© 2017 by the Ecological Society of America", "extra": "_eprint: https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ecm.1283", "tags": [ { "tag": "conditional autoregressive", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "geostatistics", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "intrinsic autoregressive", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "prediction", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "simultaneous autoregressive", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "smoothing", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "KFFFSJXP" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-04-10T14:35:36Z", "dateModified": "2026-04-10T14:35:36Z" } }, { "key": "5XZWA4L5", "version": 6286, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/5XZWA4L5", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/5XZWA4L5", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/477ZPFS4", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "5XZWA4L5", "version": 6286, "parentItem": "477ZPFS4", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_file", "title": "Hooten_etal_StatsRef_2019", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Hooten_etal_StatsRef_2019.pdf", "md5": "3d345dafbe3375f121952d17a8c1f03c", "mtime": 1775161442600, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-04-02T20:24:30Z", "dateModified": "2026-04-02T20:24:30Z" } }, { "key": "LGBUQTRU", "version": 6283, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/LGBUQTRU", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/LGBUQTRU", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/X5NBUWPY", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "LGBUQTRU", "version": 6283, "parentItem": "X5NBUWPY", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:54:56Z", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.788248/pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Fuentes et al. - 2022 - Spatial and Temporal Global Patterns of Drought Propagation.pdf", "md5": "216e510f5e133e16b98051506c1a43bd", "mtime": 1774968895756, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:54:56Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:54:56Z" } }, { "key": "X5NBUWPY", "version": 6281, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/X5NBUWPY", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/X5NBUWPY", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Fuentes et al.", "parsedDate": "2022-03-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "X5NBUWPY", "version": 6281, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Spatial and Temporal Global Patterns of Drought Propagation", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ignacio", "lastName": "Fuentes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "José", "lastName": "Padarian" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R. Willem", "lastName": "Vervoort" } ], "abstractNote": "Drought is the most expensive natural hazard and one of the deadliest. While drought propagation through standardised indices has been extensively studied at the regional scale, global scale drought propagation, and particularly quantifying the space and time variability, is still a challenging task. Quantifying the space time variability is crucial to understand how droughts have changed globally in order to cope with their impacts. In particular, better understanding of the propagation of drought through the climate, vegetation and hydrological subsystems can improve decision making and preparedness. This study maps spatial temporal drought propagation through different subsystems at the global scale over the last decades. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) based on the gamma distribution, the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on the log-logistic distribution, the standardised vegetation index (SVI) based on z-scores, and the standardised runoff index (SRI) based on empirical runoff probabilities were quantified. Additionally, drought characteristics, including duration, severity and intensity were estimated. Propagation combined the delay in response in the subsystems using drought characteristics, and trends in time were analysed. All these were calculated at 0.05 to 0.25 arc degree pixels. In general, drought propagates rapidly to the response in runoff and streamflow, and a with longer delay in the vegetation. However, this response varies spatially across the globe and depending on the observation scale, and amplifies progressively in duration and severity across large regions from the meteorological to the agricultural/ecological and hydrologic subsystems, while attenuating in intensity. Significant differences exist between major Köppen climate groups in drought characteristics and propagation. Patterns show intensification of drought severity and propagation affecting vegetation and hydrology in regions of southern South America, Australia, and south west Africa.", "publicationTitle": "Frontiers in Environmental Science", "publisher": "Frontiers", "place": "", "date": "2022-03-01", "volume": "10", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Front. Environ. Sci.", "DOI": "10.3389/fenvs.2022.788248", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/environmental-science/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.788248/full", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:54:49Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "2296-665X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "English", "libraryCatalog": "Frontiers", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Agricultural drought", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Drought propagation", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Hydrologic drought", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "meteorological drought", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "trend analysis", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:54:49Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:54:49Z" } }, { "key": "QYH74TZG", "version": 6279, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/QYH74TZG", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/QYH74TZG", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/SHVGB3HX", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "QYH74TZG", "version": 6279, "parentItem": "SHVGB3HX", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:51:46Z", "url": "https://www.fs.usda.gov/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2010_cushman_s006.pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Cushman - 2010 - Space and Time in Ecology Noise or Fundamental Driver.pdf", "md5": "3e32d20d1add9cf6a61e465da32f1a6e", "mtime": 1774968706676, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:51:46Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:51:52Z" } }, { "key": "SHVGB3HX", "version": 6278, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/SHVGB3HX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/SHVGB3HX", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Cushman", "parsedDate": "2010", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "SHVGB3HX", "version": 6278, "itemType": "bookSection", "title": "Space and Time in Ecology: Noise or Fundamental Driver?", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "editor", "firstName": "Samuel A.", "lastName": "Cushman" }, { "creatorType": "editor", "firstName": "Falk", "lastName": "Huettmann" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Samuel A.", "lastName": "Cushman" } ], "abstractNote": "", "bookTitle": "Spatial Complexity, Informatics, and Wildlife Conservation", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2010", "publisher": "Springer Japan", "place": "Tokyo", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "pages": "19-41", "ISBN": "978-4-431-87770-7 978-4-431-87771-4", "DOI": "10.1007/978-4-431-87771-4_2", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-4-431-87771-4_2", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:51:50Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Space and Time in Ecology", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "DOI.org (Crossref)", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:51:51Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:51:51Z" } }, { "key": "FUP4B92W", "version": 6274, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/FUP4B92W", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/FUP4B92W", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/YNRPH8Z3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "FUP4B92W", "version": 6274, "parentItem": "YNRPH8Z3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:37:13Z", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.620620/pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Ossola et al. - 2021 - Valuing the Role of Time in Urban Ecology.pdf", "md5": "4d6598a8529ed31a46c93f6da0620b6d", "mtime": 1774967833542, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:37:13Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:37:13Z" } }, { "key": "YNRPH8Z3", "version": 6272, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/YNRPH8Z3", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/YNRPH8Z3", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Ossola et al.", "parsedDate": "2021-03-16", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "YNRPH8Z3", "version": 6272, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Valuing the Role of Time in Urban Ecology", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Alessandro", "lastName": "Ossola" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Mary L.", "lastName": "Cadenasso" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily K.", "lastName": "Meineke" } ], "abstractNote": "Cities and towns are complex ecosystems with features that can vary dramatically in space and time. Our knowledge of the spatial structure of urban land and ecological systems is expanding. These systems have been investigated across spatial scales, urban to rural gradients, networks of urban macrosystems and global megalopolises. However, the temporal dimensions of urban ecosystems – such as those related to ecological cycles and historical legacies – are far less understood and investigated. Here, we outline the main dimensions of time that can shape how events in urban ecosystems unfold, which we categorize as: i) time flows and duration, ii) synchrony, lags and delays, iii) trends and transitions, iv) cycles and hysteresis, v) legacies and priming, vi) temporal hotspots and hot moments, and vii) stochastic vs. deterministic processes affecting our ability to forecast the future of cities and the species that live in them. First, we demonstrate the roles of these understudied dimensions by discussing exemplary studies. We then propose key future research directions for investigating how processes over time may regulate the structure and functioning of urban land and biodiversity, as well as its effects on and implications for urban ecology. Our analysis and conceptual framework highlights that several temporal dimensions of urban ecosystems – like those related to temporal hotspots/moments and stochastic vs. deterministic processes – are understudied. This offers important research opportunities to further urban ecology and a comprehensive research agenda valuing the “Urban Chronos” – the change of urban ecosystems through time.", "publicationTitle": "Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution", "publisher": "Frontiers", "place": "", "date": "2021-03-16", "volume": "9", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Front. Ecol. Evol.", "DOI": "10.3389/fevo.2021.620620", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.620620/full", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:37:05Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "2296-701X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "English", "libraryCatalog": "Frontiers", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "History", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Urban change detection", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Urban dynamics", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "urban development", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "urban trajectories", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:37:05Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:37:05Z" } }, { "key": "28C6U7C6", "version": 6268, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/28C6U7C6", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/28C6U7C6", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/8AG6I9Q3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "28C6U7C6", "version": 6268, "parentItem": "8AG6I9Q3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Snapshot", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:33:54Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.13004", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "brv.html", "md5": "84034f4b3924b0b375fd06f5233e4f1d", "mtime": 1774967634225, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:33:54Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:33:54Z" } }, { "key": "3KE24M5N", "version": 6269, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/3KE24M5N", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/3KE24M5N", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/8AG6I9Q3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "3KE24M5N", "version": 6269, "parentItem": "8AG6I9Q3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:33:53Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/brv.13004", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Lovell et al. - 2023 - Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution.pdf", "md5": "0fc30e6a63abd06948901e8de90d6426", "mtime": 1774967633045, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:33:53Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:33:53Z" } }, { "key": "8AG6I9Q3", "version": 6265, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/8AG6I9Q3", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/8AG6I9Q3", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Lovell et al.", "parsedDate": "2023", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "8AG6I9Q3", "version": 6265, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Rebecca S. L.", "lastName": "Lovell" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Sinead", "lastName": "Collins" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Simon H.", "lastName": "Martin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Alex L.", "lastName": "Pigot" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Albert B.", "lastName": "Phillimore" } ], "abstractNote": "In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space-for-time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate–biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate–biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.", "publicationTitle": "Biological Reviews", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2023", "volume": "98", "issue": "6", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "2243-2270", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1111/brv.13004", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.13004", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:33:51Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1469-185X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/brv.13004", "tags": [ { "tag": "biotic lags", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "biotic offsets", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "climate change", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "common garden transplants", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "ecological niche models", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "ecology", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "evolution", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "in situ gradients", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "reciprocal transplants", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "space-for-time substitutions", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:33:51Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:33:51Z" } }, { "key": "3FNQHFYX", "version": 6263, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/3FNQHFYX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/3FNQHFYX", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/L4D64PNT", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "3FNQHFYX", "version": 6263, "parentItem": "L4D64PNT", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:08:39Z", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2015759118", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Goodchild and Li - 2021 - Replication across space and time must be weak in the social and environmental sciences.pdf", "md5": "e4eb07491a15ec79345931a518c61c95", "mtime": 1774966119828, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:08:39Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:08:39Z" } }, { "key": "L4D64PNT", "version": 6261, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/L4D64PNT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/L4D64PNT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Goodchild and Li", "parsedDate": "2021-08-31", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "L4D64PNT", "version": 6261, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Replication across space and time must be weak in the social and environmental sciences", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Michael F.", "lastName": "Goodchild" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Wenwen", "lastName": "Li" } ], "abstractNote": "Replicability takes on special meaning when researching phenomena that are embedded in space and time, including phenomena distributed on the surface and near surface of the Earth. Two principles, spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity, are generally characteristic of such phenomena. Various practices have evolved in dealing with spatial heterogeneity, including the use of place-based models. We review the rapidly emerging applications of artificial intelligence to phenomena distributed in space and time and speculate on how the principle of spatial heterogeneity might be addressed. We introduce a concept of weak replicability and discuss possible approaches to its measurement.", "publicationTitle": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "publisher": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences", "place": "", "date": "2021-08-31", "volume": "118", "issue": "35", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "e2015759118", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1073/pnas.2015759118", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2015759118", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:08:37Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "pnas.org (Atypon)", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:08:37Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:08:37Z" } }, { "key": "M7D88A5M", "version": 6259, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/M7D88A5M", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/M7D88A5M", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/A44W7TIU", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "M7D88A5M", "version": 6259, "parentItem": "A44W7TIU", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:00:44Z", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2014.00075/pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Rull - 2014 - Time continuum and true long-term ecology from theory to practice.pdf", "md5": "4e5864a858e3c76316731e70e64b6680", "mtime": 1774965644323, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:00:44Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:00:44Z" } }, { "key": "A44W7TIU", "version": 6257, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/A44W7TIU", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/A44W7TIU", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Rull", "parsedDate": "2014-11-17", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "A44W7TIU", "version": 6257, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Time continuum and true long-term ecology: from theory to practice", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Valentí", "lastName": "Rull" } ], "abstractNote": "The need for long-term studies to understand ecological dynamics is widely recognised but has not been satisfactorily addressed to date. The development of “long-term” (LT) observatories has aimed to improve the situation, but the main handicaps are that we should wait for generations to yield reliable results and that a number of ecological processes occurring at time scales larger than centuries will not be fully resolved. Palaeoecology can provide the needed time scale for true long-term ecology, but it is limited by the ability to merge ecological and palaeoecological data into continuous time series. This paper suggests a practical way of attaining such goals based on the concept of time continuum. A short review is provided on the main handicaps for palaeoecological records to be incorporated into current ecological datasets and the recent improvements in the field. A global network of past-present-future ecological observatories (PPFEO) centered around lakes with annually-laminated sediments could act as a means of producing truly long-term and continuous ecological records by combining high-resolution palaeoecological techniques with ecological methods commonly used in LT observatories.", "publicationTitle": "Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution", "publisher": "Frontiers", "place": "", "date": "2014-11-17", "volume": "2", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Front. Ecol. Evol.", "DOI": "10.3389/fevo.2014.00075", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2014.00075/full", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T14:00:41Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "2296-701X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Time continuum and true long-term ecology", "language": "English", "libraryCatalog": "Frontiers", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "ecology-palaeoecology synergy", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "long-term ecology", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "long-term observatories", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "time continuum", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "time series", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [ "MMBBEIZ6" ], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T14:00:41Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T14:00:41Z" } }, { "key": "HGAJ62EG", "version": 6254, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/HGAJ62EG", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/HGAJ62EG", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/J5Q4XHGX", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "HGAJ62EG", "version": 6254, "parentItem": "J5Q4XHGX", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Snapshot", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T13:55:08Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.2298", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "fee.html", "md5": "c9634c9f9760ae2db886c5040bd4eaf6", "mtime": 1774965308274, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T13:55:08Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T13:55:08Z" } }, { "key": "ND7K7859", "version": 6253, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/ND7K7859", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/ND7K7859", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/J5Q4XHGX", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "ND7K7859", "version": 6253, "parentItem": "J5Q4XHGX", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T13:55:01Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/fee.2298", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Rollinson et al. - 2021 - Working across space and time nonstationarity in ecological research and application.pdf", "md5": "036b7e0bd627d0dbdfe1b8b28ec481b5", "mtime": 1774965300715, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2026-03-31T13:55:01Z", "dateModified": "2026-03-31T13:55:01Z" } }, { "key": "J5Q4XHGX", "version": 6250, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 258494, "name": "Ted Lawrence LIT", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/258494/items/J5Q4XHGX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/ted_lawrence_lit/items/J5Q4XHGX", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1227745, "username": "tjl222", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/tjl222", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Rollinson et al.", "parsedDate": "2021", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "J5Q4XHGX", "version": 6250, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Working across space and time: nonstationarity in ecological research and application", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christine R", "lastName": "Rollinson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andrew O", "lastName": "Finley" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M Ross", "lastName": "Alexander" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Sudipto", "lastName": "Banerjee" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Kelly-Ann", "lastName": "Dixon Hamil" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Lauren E", "lastName": "Koenig" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Dexter Henry", "lastName": "Locke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Megan L", "lastName": "DeMarche" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Morgan W", "lastName": "Tingley" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Kathryn", "lastName": "Wheeler" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Casey", "lastName": "Youngflesh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Elise F", "lastName": "Zipkin" } ], "abstractNote": "Ecological research increasingly considers integrative relationships among phenomena at broad spatial and temporal domains. However, such large-scale inferences are commonly confounded by changing properties in the processes that govern phenomena (termed nonstationarity), which can violate assumptions underlying standard analytical methods. Changing conditions are fundamental and pervasive features in ecology, but their influence on ecological inference and prediction increases with larger spatial and temporal domains for a host of factors. Fortunately, tools for identifying and accommodating potentially confounding spatial or temporal trends are available, and new methods are being rapidly developed. Here, we provide guidance for gaining a better understanding of nonstationarity, its causes, and how it can be addressed. Acknowledging and addressing non-constant trends in ecological patterns and processes is key to conducting large-scale research and effectively translating findings to local policies and practices.", "publicationTitle": "Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2021", "volume": "19", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "66-72", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/fee.2298", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/fee.2298", "accessDate": "2026-03-31T13:54:56Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1540-9309", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Working across space and time", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment© 2020 The Authors. 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