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The present study examines how third-person perceptions (the belief that other people are particularly vulnerable to media messages) contributed to intentions to prepare for problems stemming from Y2K, also known as the “millennium bug.” Analyses using data from 2 regional probability samples taken in late 1999 show that perceptions about the potential effects of news messages influenced public anxiety about the Y2K situation and beliefs that other people would overprepare for the new year. These 2 variables, in turn, predicted intentions to stockpile supplies of food, water, gasoline, and cash. 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A happy neighbor has more impact on your happiness than a happy spouse. These startling revelations of how much we truly influence one another are revealed in the studies of Drs. Christakis and Fowler, which have repeatedly made front-page news nationwide. In CONNECTED, the authors explain why emotions are contagious, how health behaviors spread, why the rich get richer, even how we find and choose our partners. Intriguing and entertaining, CONNECTED overturns the notion of the individual and provides a revolutionary paradigm-that social networks influence our ideas, emotions, health, relationships, behavior, politics, and much more. 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Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/TQSJBZCH", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/TQSJBZCH", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271179, "username": "afellows", "name": "Aaron Fellows", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/afellows", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Pegg et al.", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "TQSJBZCH", "version": 53, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Ethnomusicology", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Carole", "lastName": "Pegg" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Helen", "lastName": "Myers" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Philip V.", "lastName": "Bohlman" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Martin", "lastName": "Stokes" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Grove Music Online", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Oxford Music and Art Online", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-04-13T22:14:43Z", "dateModified": "2014-04-13T22:14:43Z" } }, { "key": "WTVJNCDA", "version": 52, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/WTVJNCDA", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/WTVJNCDA", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Mote et al.", "parsedDate": "2011-08", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "WTVJNCDA", "version": 52, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Guidelines for Constructing Climate Scenarios", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Philip", "lastName": "Mote" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Levi", "lastName": "Brekke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Philip B", "lastName": "Duffy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ed", "lastName": "Maurer" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "August 2011", "volume": "92", "issue": "31", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "257-264", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1029/2011EO310001/asset/eost17990.pdf?v=1&t=htqr9rk2&s=898a19493c97b1edb08ded52e7a3c250fdd5debe", "accessDate": "", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "This article, from the International Panel on Climate Change, provides guidance on how to select, treat, and combine vast amounts of climate model output into useful climate scenarios. It delves into how scientists can best get a grasp on uncertainty, as well as key considerations for combining select model outputs to create relevant scenarios.", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-04-08T05:37:30Z", "dateModified": "2014-04-08T05:52:05Z" } }, { "key": "HXXF8ZBN", "version": 52, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/HXXF8ZBN", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/HXXF8ZBN", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271179, "username": "afellows", "name": "Aaron Fellows", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/afellows", "type": "text/html" } } }, "lastModifiedByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Liu and Renfro", "parsedDate": "2013", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "HXXF8ZBN", "version": 52, "itemType": "book", "title": "Carbon Tax and Shift: How to Make it Work for Oregon's Economy", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jenny H.", "lastName": "Liu" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jeff", "lastName": "Renfro" } ], "abstractNote": "", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2013", "publisher": "Northwest Economic Research Center (NERC), College of Urban and Public Affairs, Portland State University", "place": "", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "numPages": "", "ISBN": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Carbon Tax and Shift", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Google Scholar", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-04-08T02:15:18Z", "dateModified": "2014-04-08T05:51:51Z" } }, { "key": "MITUP688", "version": 41, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/MITUP688", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/MITUP688", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/HXXF8ZBN", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271179, "username": "afellows", "name": "Aaron Fellows", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/afellows", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "MITUP688", "version": 41, "parentItem": "HXXF8ZBN", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_file", "title": "carbontax2013_0.pdf", "accessDate": "", "url": "", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "carbontax2013_0.pdf", "md5": "dc1366a73d57f7a5e21c8ec15278c5c0", "mtime": 1396923261000, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-04-08T02:14:21Z", "dateModified": "2014-04-08T02:15:31Z" } }, { "key": "VWDHVMG9", "version": 37, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/VWDHVMG9", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/VWDHVMG9", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Sohngen et al.", "parsedDate": "2001-12-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "VWDHVMG9", "version": 37, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "A Global Model of Climate Change Impacts on Timber Markets", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Brent", "lastName": "Sohngen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Robert", "lastName": "Mendelsohn" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Roger", "lastName": "Sedjo" } ], "abstractNote": "Several papers have now estimated the impact of climate change on national timber markets, but few studies have measured impacts globally. Further, the literature on impacts has focused heavily on changes in productivity and has not integrated movements of biomes as well. Here, a dynamic model of ecological change and economic change is developed to capture the impact of climate change on world timber markets. Climate change is predicted to increase global timber production as producers in low-mid latitude forests react quickly with more productive shortrotation plantations, driving down timber prices. Producers in mid-high latitude forests, in contrast, are likely to be hurt by the lower prices, dieback, and slower productivity increases because of long-rotation species. Consumers in all regions benefit from the lower prices, and the overall impacts of climate change in timber markets are expected to be beneficial, increasing welfare in those markets from 2% to 8%.", "publicationTitle": "Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "December 1, 2001", "volume": "26", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "326-343", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/40987113", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T22:29:32Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1068-5502", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "JSTOR", "callNumber": "", "rights": "Copyright © 2001 Western Agricultural Economics Association", "extra": "This article details an analysis of the effect of climate change on global timber stocks, and the subsequent impact on regional welfare. Though the study was limited to two climate change scenarios, Sohngen et al.'s models incorporate a combination of ecological and economic factors in a way that would be interesting to compare to other global studies on climate change. The authors note that forestry, as a capital-intensive sector, requires dynamic models to explore fully.", "tags": [ { "tag": "Climate Change" }, { "tag": "Modelling" }, { "tag": "timber industry" } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/243685/items/HNSP76SD" }, "dateAdded": "2014-02-16T23:10:43Z", "dateModified": "2014-02-16T23:52:16Z" } }, { "key": "9RPIIXFP", "version": 33, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/9RPIIXFP", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/9RPIIXFP", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271179, "username": "afellows", "name": "Aaron Fellows", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/afellows", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Desanker and Justice", "parsedDate": "2001-08-15", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "9RPIIXFP", "version": 33, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Africa and global climate change: critical issues and suggestions for further research and integrated assessment modeling", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Paul V.", "lastName": "Desanker" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christopher O.", "lastName": "Justice" } ], "abstractNote": "ABSTRACT: This special issue is dedicated to research on climate change in Africa. This research has, until recently, taken a back seat to more pressing applied research on natural resource management. As countries of the world position themselves with respect to climate change, it is important for African nations to better understand the likely impacts of climate change on their environment, peoples and economies. African researchers are now starting to address global change research issues, and this special issue provides a sample of recent research on climate change. Climate change must be an integral part of the long-term sustainable development agenda for African nations. Coping with and adapting to climate change requires a strong scientific understanding integrated with socioeconomic and policy considerations. At this time, international efforts are developing the climate change research agendas needed to develop this basic understanding and explore ways to integrate physical and social processes within a modeling framework. The immediate focus is on undertaking regional scale analyses and coupled models suited to the African physical and socioeconomic environment. This paper summarizes the rationale for this special issue, identifies the key issues addressed in the contributions and provides a concise research framework for further work on Africa. One of the primary goals of this framework is to develop regional integrated assessment models for Africa. These models are a necessary step towards strengthening the analysis of impacts and help make the necessary connection between science understanding, resource management and public policy. Integrated assessments will also help incorporate climate change analysis and prediction in sustainable development schemes.", "publicationTitle": "Climate Research", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "August 15, 2001", "volume": "17", "issue": "2", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "93-103", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Clim Res", "DOI": "10.3354/cr017093", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v17/n2/p93-103/", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T22:31:18Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Africa and global climate change", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "Inter-Research Science Center", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "This text contains a thorough overview of contemporary modelling technology, and will be useful in presenting a baseline level of understanding on models. This understanding will be a valuable aid in taking in the nuances of professional opinion on systems models.", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-02-16T22:31:18Z", "dateModified": "2014-02-16T23:49:27Z" } }, { "key": "FHK299QT", "version": 33, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/FHK299QT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/FHK299QT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1271179, "username": "afellows", "name": "Aaron Fellows", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/afellows", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Castree", "parsedDate": "2009", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "FHK299QT", "version": 33, "itemType": "book", "title": "A companion to environmental geography", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Noel", "lastName": "Castree" } ], "abstractNote": "A Companion to Environmental Geography is the first book to comprehensively and systematically map the research frontier of 'human-environment geography' in an accessible and comprehensive way.:.; Cross-cuts several areas of a discipline which has traditionally been seen as divided; presenting work by human and physical geographers in the same volume.; Presents both the current 'state of the art' research and charts future possibilities for the discipline.; Extends the term 'environmental geography' beyond its 'traditional' meanings to include new work on nature and environment by human and ph.", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2009", "publisher": "Wiley-Blackwell", "place": "Chichester, UK", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "numPages": "", "ISBN": "9781444305739 1444305735 9781405197922 1405197927", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.blackwellreference.com/subscriber/book?id=g9781405156226_9781405156226", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T23:23:14Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "English", "libraryCatalog": "Open WorldCat", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "This text contains a thorough overview of contemporary modelling technology, and will be useful in presenting a baseline level of understanding on models. This understanding will be a valuable aid in taking in the nuances of professional opinion on systems models.", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-02-16T23:23:14Z", "dateModified": "2014-02-16T23:49:16Z" } }, { "key": "V5Q5BI2V", "version": 27, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/V5Q5BI2V", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/V5Q5BI2V", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Samson et al.", "parsedDate": "2011", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "V5Q5BI2V", "version": 27, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J.", "lastName": "Samson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Berteaux" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "B. J.", "lastName": "McGill" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. M.", "lastName": "Humphries" } ], "abstractNote": "Aim It has been qualitatively understood for a long time that climate change will have widely varying effects on human well-being in different regions of the world. The spatial complexities underlying our relationship to climate and the geographical disparities in human demographic change have, however, precluded the development of global indices of the predicted regional impacts of climate change on humans. Humans will be most negatively affected by climate change in regions where populations are strongly dependent on climate and favourable climatic conditions decline. Here we use the relationship between the distribution of human population density and climate as a basis to develop the first global index of predicted impacts of climate change on human populations.Location Global.Methods We use spatially explicit models of the present relationship between human population density and climate along with forecasted climate change to predict climate vulnerabilities over the coming decades. We then globally represent regional disparities in human population dynamics estimated with our ecological niche model and with a demographic forecast and contrast these disparities with CO2 emissions data to quantitatively evaluate the notion of moral hazard in climate change policies.Results Strongly negative impacts of climate change are predicted in Central America, central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and much of Africa. Importantly, the regions of greatest vulnerability are generally distant from the high-latitude regions where the magnitude of climate change will be greatest. Furthermore, populations contributing the most to greenhouse gas emissions on a per capita basis are unlikely to experience the worst impacts of climate change, satisfying the conditions for a moral hazard in climate change policies.Main conclusions Regionalized analysis of relationships between distribution of human population density and climate provides a novel framework for developing global indices of human vulnerability to climate change. The predicted consequences of climate change on human populations are correlated with the factors causing climate change at the regional level, providing quantitative support for many qualitative statements found in international climate change assessments.", "publicationTitle": "Global Ecology and Biogeography", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2011", "volume": "20", "issue": "4", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "532–544", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x/abstract", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T23:14:27Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1466-8238", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "© 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd", "extra": "This study uses spatial models, prinicipally focused on population density and geographic climate change predictions, to look for future climate change vulnerabilities. Samson et al.'s article would be interesting to compare to other climate change modelling because it seems to be approaching the issue from a neo-Malthusian, ecological perspective.", "tags": [ { "tag": "climate change", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "climate vulnerability", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "demography", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "ecological niche model", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "geographically weighted regression", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "human populations", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "moral hazard", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-02-16T23:14:27Z", "dateModified": "2014-02-16T23:42:18Z" } }, { "key": "VNN7B7AT", "version": 23, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/VNN7B7AT", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/VNN7B7AT", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "von Lampe et al.", "parsedDate": "2014", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "VNN7B7AT", "version": 23, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Martin", "lastName": "von Lampe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Dirk", "lastName": "Willenbockel" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Helal", "lastName": "Ahammad" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Elodie", "lastName": "Blanc" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Yongxia", "lastName": "Cai" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Katherine", "lastName": "Calvin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Shinichiro", "lastName": "Fujimori" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Tomoko", "lastName": "Hasegawa" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Petr", "lastName": "Havlik" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Edwina", "lastName": "Heyhoe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Page", "lastName": "Kyle" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Hermann", "lastName": "Lotze-Campen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Daniel", "lastName": "Mason d'Croz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Gerald C.", "lastName": "Nelson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ronald D.", "lastName": "Sands" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christoph", "lastName": "Schmitz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andrzej", "lastName": "Tabeau" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Hugo", "lastName": "Valin" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Dominique", "lastName": "van der Mensbrugghe" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Hans", "lastName": "van Meijl" } ], "abstractNote": "Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of “real world commodity prices” differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between −0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.", "publicationTitle": "Agricultural Economics", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2014", "volume": "45", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "3–20", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1111/agec.12086", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12086/abstract", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T23:05:10Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1574-0862", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ?", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "© 2013 International Association of Agricultural Economists", "extra": "This article examines the issue that recent studies of global food security have reached different and sometimes even contradictory conclusions using economic modelling. The authors attempt to weed out the relevant input factors in each of 10 models to determine key drivers. This article is relevant because the authors identify the lack of both variable and model parameter standardization, as well as the need for more interdisciplinary modelling, as the sources of the disparity between results. We will be attempting a similarly-structured intercomparison.", "tags": [ { "tag": "Bioenergy", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "C63", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "C68", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Computable general equilibrium", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "LAND use", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Meta-analysis", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Model intercomparison", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Partial equilibrium", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "climate change", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/243685/items/Z8GQE2X4" }, "dateAdded": "2014-02-16T23:09:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-02-16T23:33:40Z" } }, { "key": "SF5BNTKK", "version": 9, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 249091, "name": "ENVSSymp14 - Modelling", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/SF5BNTKK", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/envssymp14_-_modelling/items/SF5BNTKK", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/249091/items/V5Q5BI2V", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 1276443, "username": "samkumasaka", "name": "Osamu Kumasaka", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/samkumasaka", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "SF5BNTKK", "version": 9, "parentItem": "V5Q5BI2V", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2014-02-16T23:14:27Z", "url": "http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x/asset/j.1466-8238.2010.00632.x.pdf?v=1&t=hrqxlk2h&s=aed08511bbba8a83c5d38ed4cf43ec01f2433c69", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Samson et al. - 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