[ { "key": "7Y3QCV2S", "version": 362, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/7Y3QCV2S", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/7Y3QCV2S", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Oke et al.", "parsedDate": "2024-11-21", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "7Y3QCV2S", "version": 362, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Doris", "lastName": "Oke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Lauren", "lastName": "Sittler" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Troy R.", "lastName": "Hawkins" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "George G.", "lastName": "Zaimes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Hao", "lastName": "Cai" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Aaron", "lastName": "Brooker" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Douglas", "lastName": "Longman" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ram", "lastName": "Vijayagopal" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "David", "lastName": "Gohlke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Avantika", "lastName": "Singh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jennifer", "lastName": "Dunn" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Daniel J.", "lastName": "Gaspar" } ], "abstractNote": "Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. The multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle’s load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.", "publicationTitle": "Energy & Fuels", "publisher": "American Chemical Society", "place": "", "date": "2024-11-21", "volume": "38", "issue": "22", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "22230-22244", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Energy Fuels", "DOI": "10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c02837", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c02837", "accessDate": "2024-11-27T22:24:36Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0887-0624", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ACS Publications", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-11-27T22:25:03Z", "dateModified": "2024-11-27T22:25:03Z" } }, { "key": "Y9NTALGC", "version": 361, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/Y9NTALGC", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/Y9NTALGC", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/7Y3QCV2S", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "Y9NTALGC", "version": 361, "parentItem": "7Y3QCV2S", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2024-11-27T22:24:39Z", "url": "https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.energyfuels.4c02837", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Oke et al. - 2024 - Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Mu.pdf", "md5": "b9fbd7f2a4288a2e35049dcdd6589d58", "mtime": 1732746279806, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-11-27T22:25:03Z", "dateModified": "2024-11-27T22:25:03Z" } }, { "key": "2X7V53JW", "version": 359, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/2X7V53JW", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/2X7V53JW", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/J35J3KZB", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "2X7V53JW", "version": 359, "parentItem": "J35J3KZB", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "ScienceDirect Snapshot", "accessDate": "2024-07-08T03:56:09Z", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421524002702?utm_campaign=STMJ_219742_AUTH_SERV_PA&utm_medium=email&utm_acid=119872334&SIS_ID=&dgcid=STMJ_219742_AUTH_SERV_PA&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM488886&utm_source=AC_", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "S0301421524002702.html", "md5": "8bb29503015ce8e48677eb34639b662d", "mtime": 1720410969623, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-07-08T03:58:29Z", "dateModified": "2024-07-08T03:58:29Z" } }, { "key": "J35J3KZB", "version": 357, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/J35J3KZB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/J35J3KZB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Miller et al.", "parsedDate": "2024-09-01", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "J35J3KZB", "version": 357, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jesse", "lastName": "Miller" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Christopher M.", "lastName": "Clark" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Steve", "lastName": "Peterson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" } ], "abstractNote": "Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. This study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.", "publicationTitle": "Energy Policy", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2024-09-01", "volume": "192", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "114250", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Energy Policy", "DOI": "10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114250", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421524002702", "accessDate": "2024-07-08T03:56:02Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0301-4215", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Attribution", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Biodiesel", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Bioenergy scenario model", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Biofuels", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Renewable diesel", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Renewable fuels standard", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-07-08T03:58:29Z", "dateModified": "2024-07-08T03:58:29Z" } }, { "key": "HURZDJF3", "version": 353, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/HURZDJF3", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/HURZDJF3", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Atnoorkar et al.", "parsedDate": "2024-04-26", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "HURZDJF3", "version": 353, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Algae to HEFA: Economics and potential deployment in the United States", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Swaroop", "lastName": "Atnoorkar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Matthew", "lastName": "Wiatrowski" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Ryan", "lastName": "Davis" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Steve", "lastName": "Peterson" } ], "abstractNote": "To reach the goals set by the US Department of Energy's Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Grand Challenge, currently available feedstocks may be insufficient. Giving priority to developing, prototyping and reducing the cost of algal feedstock before investing and lining up locations is important. As the production of algal feedstocks advances, a simplified conversion approach using more mature technologies can help reduce the investment risk for algae-based fuels. Reducing process complexity to the steps described here [namely, conversion of lipids to HEFA (hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids) fuels and relegating the remainder of the biomass to anaerobic digestion or food/feed production] enables the near-term production of algal SAF but presents challenging economics depending on achievable cultivation costs and compositional quality. However, these economics can be improved by present-day policy incentives. With these incentives, the modeled algae-to-HEFA pathway could reach a minimum fuel selling price as low as $4.7 per gasoline gallon equivalent depending on the carbon intensity reduction that can be achieved compared with petroleum. Uncertainty about algal feedstock production maturity in the current state of technology and the future will play a large role in determining the economic feasibility of building algae-to-HEFA facilities. For example, if immaturity increases the feedstock price by even 10%, SAF production in 2050 is about 58% of the production which could have been achieved with mature feedstock. Additionally, growth in this conversion pathway can be notably boosted through the inclusion of subsidies, and also through higher-value coproducts or higher lipid yields beyond the scope of the process considered here.", "publicationTitle": "Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "26 April 2024", "volume": "n/a", "issue": "n/a", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1002/bbb.2623", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/bbb.2623", "accessDate": "2024-06-14T23:01:00Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1932-1031", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Algae to HEFA", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Wiley Online Library", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/bbb.2623", "tags": [ { "tag": "algal fuel", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "bioenergy scenario model", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "biofuel", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "system dynamics", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "techno-economics", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-06-14T23:01:00Z", "dateModified": "2024-06-14T23:01:45Z" } }, { "key": "FQJVRL5P", "version": 349, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/FQJVRL5P", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/FQJVRL5P", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/HURZDJF3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } } }, "data": { "key": "FQJVRL5P", "version": 349, "parentItem": "HURZDJF3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Snapshot", "accessDate": "2024-06-14T23:01:07Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bbb.2623?af=R", "note": "", "contentType": "text/html", "charset": "utf-8", "filename": "bbb.html", "md5": "139bea2c2fc48d139c3893bdf737343a", "mtime": 1718406067900, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-06-14T23:01:07Z", "dateModified": "2024-06-14T23:01:07Z" } }, { "key": "NL8HBRBX", "version": 350, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/NL8HBRBX", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/NL8HBRBX", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/HURZDJF3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "NL8HBRBX", "version": 350, "parentItem": "HURZDJF3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2024-06-14T23:01:01Z", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/bbb.2623", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Atnoorkar et al. - Algae to HEFA Economics and potential deployment .pdf", "md5": "31619f02253e7dabcd63d27e6f82a712", "mtime": 1718406061978, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2024-06-14T23:01:01Z", "dateModified": "2024-06-14T23:01:01Z" } }, { "key": "SW63TTDB", "version": 347, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/SW63TTDB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/SW63TTDB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Peterson et al.", "parsedDate": "2024-02-02", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "SW63TTDB", "version": 347, "itemType": "computerProgram", "title": "NREL BSM-Public", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Peterson" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "B.", "lastName": "Bush" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Inman" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "D.", "lastName": "Hsu" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "Y.", "lastName": "Lin" }, { "creatorType": "programmer", "firstName": "S.", "lastName": "Atnoorkar" } ], "abstractNote": "", "seriesTitle": "", "versionNumber": "", "date": "2/2/2024", "system": "", "company": "National Renewable Energy Laboratory", "place": "", "programmingLanguage": "", "rights": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://github.com/NREL/bsm-public", "accessDate": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "libraryCatalog": "GitHub", "callNumber": "", "shortTitle": "", "extra": "original-date: 2017-09-25T18:56:31Z", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": { "owl:sameAs": "http://zotero.org/groups/751287/items/BA2KF9KA" }, "dateAdded": "2024-02-02T22:25:44Z", "dateModified": "2024-02-02T22:28:16Z" } }, { "key": "A3PNPF23", "version": 362, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/A3PNPF23", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/A3PNPF23", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Oke et al.", "parsedDate": "2023-09-12", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "A3PNPF23", "version": 362, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Energy, economic, and environmental impacts assessment of co-optimized on-road heavy-duty engines and bio-blendstocks", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Doris", "lastName": "Oke" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Lauren", "lastName": "Sittler" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Hao", "lastName": "Cai" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Andre", "lastName": "Avelino" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "George G.", "lastName": "Zaimes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Yimin", "lastName": "Zhang" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Longwen", "lastName": "Ou" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Avantika", "lastName": "Singh" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jennifer B.", "lastName": "Dunn" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Troy R.", "lastName": "Hawkins" } ], "abstractNote": "Abundant domestic biomass and waste resources can be converted to a number of liquid transportation fuels, including those for aviation, marine, and diesel-fueled vehicles. For example, diesel-range renewable blendstocks with favorable properties such as high-cetane number, low sulfur, and oxygenation can be produced for heavy-duty (HD), mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engine vehicles. Renewable MCCI fuels and a ducted fuel injection technology could reduce engine-out soot and nitrogen oxide emissions, leading to reduced total cost of vehicle ownership and a potential to penetrate the market at scale. We employed a suite of integrated models to evaluate different MCCI fuels (polyoxymethylene dimethyl ether from forest residues; alkoxy alkanoate ester ether from corn stover; renewable diesel from fats, oils, and greases (FOG), wastewater sludge, and swine manure) that are potentially technically viable, and scalable. We assessed how MCCI fuels could be produced and deployed over time in potential deployment scenarios, considering their impact on consumer vehicle choices, market availability and build-out of biomass- or waste-derived MCCI fuels and biorefineries, and the effects of a hypothetical U.S. carbon tax. In the absence of a carbon tax, co-optimized MCCI vehicles account for 9–325 thousand TJ per yr of renewable fuels to supply 4–9% of heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) stock in 2050 across all scenarios. Consequently, we estimated that the life-cycle petroleum consumption would decrease by 2–15%, life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions would decrease by 2–11%, and net jobs would increase by 4600–25 400, compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario defined by energy information administration projections. With a carbon tax, co-optimized MCCI vehicles account for 175–338 thousand TJ per yr of renewable fuels to supply 7–35% of HDV vehicle stock in 2050. Consequently, we estimated that the life-cycle petroleum consumption would decrease by 8–16%, the life-cycle GHG emissions would decrease by 7–11%, and net jobs would increase by 3000–29 000. With a carbon tax and a nationwide renewable diesel policy framework, even greater benefits would be expected when additional renewable diesel fuels are produced and used by co-optimized MCCI vehicles. Ultimately, we put forward a framework to evaluate the energy, environmental and economic impacts associated with deployments of co-optimized MCCI fuels and engines in class 8 long-haul trucks.", "publicationTitle": "Sustainable Energy & Fuels", "publisher": "The Royal Society of Chemistry", "place": "", "date": "2023-09-12", "volume": "7", "issue": "18", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "4580-4601", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Sustainable Energy Fuels", "DOI": "10.1039/D3SE00381G", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2023/se/d3se00381g", "accessDate": "2023-10-13T03:29:34Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "2398-4902", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "pubs.rsc.org", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-10-13T03:30:41Z", "dateModified": "2023-10-13T03:30:41Z" } }, { "key": "64MIWMHK", "version": 341, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/64MIWMHK", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/64MIWMHK", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/A3PNPF23", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "64MIWMHK", "version": 341, "parentItem": "A3PNPF23", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2023-10-13T03:29:47Z", "url": "https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlepdf/2023/se/d3se00381g", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Oke et al. - 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2023 - Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production.pdf", "md5": "27810452bc458a68361d05568fb1349d", "mtime": 1695752675176, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-09-26T18:24:35Z", "dateModified": "2023-09-26T18:24:35Z" } }, { "key": "KQVE9SVB", "version": 335, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/KQVE9SVB", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/KQVE9SVB", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Vimmerstedt et al.", "parsedDate": "2023", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "KQVE9SVB", "version": 335, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production: a coordinated analysis with a detailed structural model and an integrated multisectoral model", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Laura", "lastName": "Vimmerstedt" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Swaroop", "lastName": "Atnoorkar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Candelaria", "lastName": "Bergero" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Marshall", "lastName": "Wise" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Steve", "lastName": "Peterson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Daniel", "lastName": "Inman" } ], "abstractNote": "Scenarios for deep decarbonization involve biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, and they often include negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. However, critical questions remain about the feasibility of rapid growth to high levels of biomass utilization, given biomass and land availability as well as historical growth rates of the biofuel industry. We address these questions through a unique coordinated analysis and comparison of carbon pricing effects on biomass utilization growth in the United States using a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), and a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM). We harmonized and varied key factors—such as carbon prices, vehicle electrification, and arable land availability—in the two models. We varied the rate of biorefinery construction, the fungibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives in BSM. The rate of growth in biomass deployment under a carbon price in both models is within the range of current literature. However, the reallocation of land to biomass feedstocks would need to overcome bottlenecks to achieve growth consistent with deep decarbonization scenarios. Investments as a result of near-term policy incentives can develop technology and expand capacity—reducing costs, enabling flexibility in feedstock use, and improving stability—but if biomass demand is high, these investments might not overcome land reallocation bottlenecks. Biomass utilization for deep decarbonization relies on extraordinary growth in biomass availability and industrial capacity. In this paper, we quantify and describe the potential challenges of this rapid change.", "publicationTitle": "Environmental Research Letters", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2023", "volume": "", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Environ. Res. Lett.", "DOI": "10.1088/1748-9326/acf146", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acf146", "accessDate": "2023-09-26T18:24:30Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1748-9326", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Deep decarbonization and U.S. biofuels production", "language": "en", "libraryCatalog": "Institute of Physics", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-09-26T18:24:30Z", "dateModified": "2023-09-26T18:24:30Z" } }, { "key": "5K2ZYLX3", "version": 334, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/5K2ZYLX3", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/5K2ZYLX3", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Bush", "parsedDate": "2015-03-24", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "5K2ZYLX3", "version": 334, "itemType": "presentation", "title": "Biomass Scenario Model", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "presenter", "firstName": "Brian", "lastName": "Bush" } ], "abstractNote": "", "presentationType": "", "date": "3/24/2015", "meetingName": "BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review", "place": "Washington, DC", "series": "", "sessionTitle": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2015/04/f22/sustainability_and_strategic_analysis_bush_4121_0.pdf", "accessDate": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "en", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-09-26T18:19:02Z", "dateModified": "2023-09-26T18:20:58Z" } }, { "key": "3WMSNV92", "version": 328, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/3WMSNV92", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/3WMSNV92", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/5K2ZYLX3", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "3WMSNV92", "version": 328, "parentItem": "5K2ZYLX3", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Biomass Scenario Model.pdf", "accessDate": "2023-09-26T18:19:00Z", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2015/04/f22/sustainability_and_strategic_analysis_bush_4121_0.pdf", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Biomass Scenario Model.pdf", "md5": "23fd270da3396a894e23ecb631d531eb", "mtime": 1695752342330, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-09-26T18:19:00Z", "dateModified": "2023-09-26T18:19:02Z" } }, { "key": "WVJCX3R9", "version": 324, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/WVJCX3R9", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/WVJCX3R9", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Atnoorkar et al.", "parsedDate": "2022-12-02", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "WVJCX3R9", "version": 324, "itemType": "conferencePaper", "title": "Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States: Comparing Biofuels Growth in Two Models - GCAM and BSM", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Swaroop", "lastName": "Atnoorkar" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Laura", "lastName": "Vimmerstedt" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Steve", "lastName": "Peterson" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Marshall", "lastName": "Wise" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Candelaria", "lastName": "Bergero" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Daniel", "lastName": "Inman" } ], "abstractNote": "Scenarios for deep decarbonization rely on biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, often including negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. Despite the prominence of biomass in many deep decarbonization pathways, critical questions remain about biomass allocation, effects of transportation electrification, the pace of growth, and implications for agriculture and land use. We address these questions through a unique comparison of carbon pricing effects on the growth of biomass utilization and its effects on land use in the United States by comparing results from a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM], with results from a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model [BSM]. We contribute to model comparison efforts by analyzing the biomass deployment needed for a scenario consistent with a \"Middle of the Road\" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP2] and a representative concentration pathway of 2.6 W/m2. The GCAM scenarios solve for global equilibrium conditions that are consistent with this pathway, including demands for biomass across all economic sectors and representing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a technology option. The BSM scenarios assess those biomass and biofuel results for the United States and identify challenges associated with that pace and amount of expansion. In the scenario analysis, we harmonize key factors such as carbon price trajectory, domestic ethanol fuel demand, ethanol blending, and arable land availability, and vary them in both models. In GCAM, we vary the carbon price, transportation electrification, ethanol blending constraints, and arable land availability inputs and the value of the carbon in land; in BSM, in addition to directly inputting certain GCAM results, we vary the maximum rate of biorefinery construction, flexibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives such as tax credits and renewable identification number payments. The selected carbon price trajectory results in a rapid increase in biofuel production in the United States, reaching about 9.4 EJ/year in 2060 in the highest scenario analyzed in GCAM. Results differ between the two models in timing and ultimate quantity of biomass and biofuel production. GCAM biofuel quantities generally exceed BSM amounts because CCS is applied to biofuel pathways in GCAM, and because of differences in capacity expansion and related dynamics of land allocation, biomass production, and price dynamics. These dynamics include rapid biorefinery capacity expansion in high demand cases. To satisfy this biomass demand, GCAM rapidly equilibrates land allocation, but the BSM limits the rate at which this re-allocation can occur. A further contrast with the equilibrium approach in GCAM is that the BSM represents a delay between planting and harvesting woody biomass resources. As a result of these model contrasts, feedstock costs in BSM increase more than in GCAM, and the absence of CCS in the BSM also reduces the relative economic attractiveness of biofuels production. The bottlenecks, lags, and price increases also lead to potential for volatility in feedstock price and land allocation to biomass in the BSM. GCAM has more biomass production than BSM in all scenarios, partly because of the broader, economy-wide coverage of GCAM, in contrast to BSM's exclusive focus on biofuels. In both models, trends like those of biofuels production were observed for biomass production: minimal growth without a carbon price and policy incentives, and increases with a carbon price, particularly with carbon capture and storage, because the inputs assume that biopower and biofuels decrease greenhouse gas emissions. In high policy scenarios, biomass demand is high, and the consequent high biomass prices due to the land re-allocation bottleneck in the BSM limit biofuel production even if the biorefinery capacity is expanded. However, because biomass prices do not increase as much in the low policy scenario, growth is slower and the land-reallocation bottleneck no longer dominates, such that the effect of increased capacity can be seen. Across both the models, a change in assumptions from less to more land availability increases biofuel production in both GCAM and BSM, as the upward pressure on feedstock price and volatility are both reduced.", "proceedingsTitle": "", "conferenceName": "15th Integrated Assessment Modelling Consortium (IAMC) Annual Meeting", "publisher": "", "place": "College Park, MD", "date": "2022/12/02", "eventPlace": "", "volume": "", "issue": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "pages": "", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "DOI": "", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1902645", "accessDate": "2023-08-24T17:12:32Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States", "language": "English", "libraryCatalog": "www.osti.gov", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-08-24T17:12:32Z", "dateModified": "2023-08-24T17:16:52Z" } }, { "key": "LUKS8FH5", "version": 317, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/LUKS8FH5", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/LUKS8FH5", "type": "text/html" }, "up": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/WVJCX3R9", "type": "application/json" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "LUKS8FH5", "version": 317, "parentItem": "WVJCX3R9", "itemType": "attachment", "linkMode": "imported_url", "title": "Full Text PDF", "accessDate": "2023-08-24T17:12:34Z", "url": "https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1902645", "note": "", "contentType": "application/pdf", "charset": "", "filename": "Atnoorkar et al. - 2022 - Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States Co.pdf", "md5": "515ef8e8bd6ba103a778219dcde9fda7", "mtime": 1692897154545, "tags": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2023-08-24T17:12:34Z", "dateModified": "2023-08-24T17:12:34Z" } }, { "key": "USBT3Q6I", "version": 315, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 209264, "name": "BSM Publications", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/209264/items/USBT3Q6I", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/bsm_publications/items/USBT3Q6I", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 195998, "username": "enewes", "name": "Emily Newes", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/enewes", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Newes", "parsedDate": "2023-04-03", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "USBT3Q6I", "version": 315, "itemType": "presentation", "title": "Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "presenter", "firstName": "Emily", "lastName": "Newes" } ], "abstractNote": "The Bioeconomy Scenario Analysis (BSA) project uses systems thinking and analysis to assess how techno economics, research and development, deployment strategies, policy, and market conditions affect the potential development trajectories of the developing bioenergy industry. This project informs researchers, decision makers, and industry by identifying opportunities for and constraints to industrial development and quantifying important industry metrics (e.g., energy, economic, environmental) towards a sustainable domestic bioenergy system. One of the tools used in this project, the Bioenergy Scenario Model (BSM) is a publicly-available, unique, validated, state-of-the-art, award-winning, fourth-generation model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on how and under what conditions biofuel technologies might be deployed to contribute to the U.S. transportation energy sector. Analysis products from this effort enable the development of the bioenergy industry by (1) encouraging policy-makers to explore multiple levers simulating outside impacts on biofuels production, identifying policy actions; (2) improving industry’s understanding of growth potential under different market conditions, better targeting their development efforts; and (3) providing universities and other interested stakeholders with analysis tools and analyses that can be adapted to meet research and teaching objectives, thus connecting students with careers that build the industry.", "presentationType": "", "date": "April 3, 2023", "meetingName": "BETO 2023 Project Peer Review", "place": "Denver, CO", "series": "", "sessionTitle": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2023-05/beto-04-project-peer-review-dma-apr-2023-newes.pdf", "accessDate": "2023-06-02T21:23:46Z", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], 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This report is responsive to Section 204 of the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). This Third Triennial Report to Congress focuses on the dominant biofuel sources in the US: (1) domestic corn ethanol from corn starch, (2) domestic biodiesel from soybean oil, (3) domestic biodiesel from fats, oils, and greases (FOGs), and (4) imported ethanol from Brazilian sugarcane. The report was developed in close collaboration with USDA, DOE, and USGS. 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