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Such fluctuations can be due for example to the dynamic of clouds which can be very complex and depend on cloud type, size, speed and spatial distribution and, more generally, due to some specific local meteorological conditions.\n\nIn this work, we have led a statistical and dynamical analysis of time dependent global solar radiation sequences in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.) located in the East part of the lesser Antilles. It's the first land to receive the transported clouds by the trade winds, there is also cloud generation by convection process. This process is strongly time dependent. Consequently there is direct relation between this process and fluctuations on ground measured solar radiation signals. In this analysis we have used solar radiation data measured at 1 hz. We have classified time conditioned probability density functions (pdf) the clearness index kt. to ensure that the experimental probability density function (pdf) is well defined we have use the best information criterion to find the appropriate number of bins for each pdf. This classification allowed to identify different regimes of solar radiation at specific hours of the day.", "publicationTitle": "Energy Procedia", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2014", "volume": "57", "issue": "", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1309-1316", "series": "2013 ISES Solar World Congress", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Energy Procedia", "DOI": "10.1016/j.egypro.2014.10.121", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187661021401488X", "accessDate": "2014-11-28T12:41:03Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "1876-6102", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "classification", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "fluctuations,", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "solar radiation sequence", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "time conditionned analysis", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "IRPN4TH6", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/IRPN4TH6", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/IRPN4TH6", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Reno et al.", "parsedDate": "2012", "numChildren": 0 }, "data": { "key": "IRPN4TH6", "version": 1910, "itemType": "newspaperArticle", "title": "Global Horizontal Irradiance Clear Sky Models: Implementation and Analysis", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Matthew", "lastName": "Reno" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Clifford", "lastName": "Hansen" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Joshua", "lastName": "Stein" } ], "abstractNote": "", "publicationTitle": "SAND2 012 - 2389", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "2012", "volume": "", "issue": "", "edition": "SANDIA REPORT", "section": "", "pages": "", "ISSN": "", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "QM96WRQP", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/QM96WRQP", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/QM96WRQP", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Perez and Hoff", "parsedDate": "2013", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "QM96WRQP", "version": 1910, "itemType": "bookSection", "title": "Chapter 10 - SolarAnywhere Forecasting", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Richard", "lastName": "Perez" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Tom E.", "lastName": "Hoff" }, { "creatorType": "editor", "firstName": "Jan", "lastName": "Kleissl" } ], "abstractNote": "This chapter describes, and presents an evaluation of, the forecast models embedded in the SolarAnywhere platform. The models include satellite-derived cloud-motion–based forecasts for short to medium horizons (1–5 h) and forecasts derived from NOAA’s numerical weather prediction models for long horizons up to several days ahead. In addition, the chapter describes a new high-frequency (1 min) application of the cloud-motion model for time horizons below 1 h.", "bookTitle": "Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2013", "publisher": "Academic Press", "place": "Boston", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "pages": "233-265", "ISBN": "978-0-12-397177-7", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123971777000103", "accessDate": "2014-11-28T12:36:59Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "GOES satellite", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "National Digital Forecast Database", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "SUNY model", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "cloud-motion vector", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "validation", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "QUTNCGHH", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/QUTNCGHH", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/QUTNCGHH", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Muzy et al.", "parsedDate": "2008", "numChildren": 3 }, "data": { "key": "QUTNCGHH", "version": 1910, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Uncovering latent singularities from multifractal scaling laws in mixed asymptotic regime. Application to turbulence", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "J. F.", "lastName": "Muzy" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "E.", "lastName": "Bacry" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "R.", "lastName": "Baile" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "P.", "lastName": "Poggi" } ], "abstractNote": "In this paper we revisit an idea originally proposed by Mandelbrot about the possibility to observe ``negative dimensions'' in random multifractals. For that purpose, we define a new way to study scaling where the observation scale $\\tau$ and the total sample length $L$ are respectively going to zero and to infinity. This ``mixed'' asymptotic regime is parametrized by an exponent $\\chi$ that corresponds to Mandelbrot ``supersampling exponent''. In order to study the scaling exponents in the mixed regime, we use a formalism introduced in the context of the physics of disordered systems relying upon traveling wave solutions of some non-linear iteration equation. Within our approach, we show that for random multiplicative cascade models, the parameter $\\chi$ can be interpreted as a negative dimension and, as anticipated by Mandelbrot, allows one to uncover the ``hidden'' negative part of the singularity spectrum, corresponding to ``latent'' singularities. We illustrate our purpose on synthetic cascade models. When applied to turbulence data, this formalism allows us to distinguish two popular phenomenological models of dissipation intermittency: We show that the mixed scaling exponents agree with a log-normal model and not with log-Poisson statistics.", "publicationTitle": "EPL (Europhysics Letters)", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "06/2008", "volume": "82", "issue": "6", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "60007", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "", "DOI": "10.1209/0295-5075/82/60007", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://arxiv.org/abs/0711.4862", "accessDate": "2014-11-28T13:08:06Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0295-5075, 1286-4854", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "arXiv.org", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "arXiv: 0711.4862", "tags": [ { "tag": "Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "5SAEXPZS", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/5SAEXPZS", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/5SAEXPZS", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Mayer-Kress", "parsedDate": "1988-11", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "5SAEXPZS", "version": 1910, "itemType": "conferencePaper", "title": "Fractal dimensions, Lyapunov exponents, and predictability of human EEG signals", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "G.", "lastName": "Mayer-Kress" } ], "abstractNote": "The author presents several developments in the application of nonlinear science to diagnostic problems. These include estimation of Lyapunov characteristic exponents, the temporal evolution of local dimensional complexity and divergence rates, and their relationship to the temporal predictability of the EEG. These measures allow the estimation of state changes based on alteration of the complexity of the EEG due to loss of coherence or due to bifurcations to higher chaotic states. Results are presented which show the variability of the nonlinear complexity of the EEG during different stages of anesthesia and sleep. Questions of robustness of the method and data requirements are discussed.<>", "proceedingsTitle": "Proceedings of the Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, 1988", "conferenceName": "Proceedings of the Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society, 1988", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "novembre 1988", "eventPlace": "", "volume": "", "issue": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "pages": "1754 vol.4-", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "DOI": "10.1109/IEMBS.1988.94973", "ISBN": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "", "accessDate": "", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "IEEE Xplore", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Lyapunov exponents", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "bifurcations", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "chaotic states", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "coherence", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "diagnostic problems", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "electroencephalography", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "fractal dimensions", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "fractals", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "human EEG signals", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "local dimensional complexity", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "nonlinear science", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "signal predictability", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "5BTVWFH9", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/5BTVWFH9", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/5BTVWFH9", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Kühnert et al.", "parsedDate": "2013", "numChildren": 1 }, "data": { "key": "5BTVWFH9", "version": 1910, "itemType": "bookSection", "title": "Chapter 11 - Satellite-Based Irradiance and Power Forecasting for the German Energy Market", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Jan", "lastName": "Kühnert" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Elke", "lastName": "Lorenz" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Detlev", "lastName": "Heinemann" }, { "creatorType": "editor", "firstName": "Jan", "lastName": "Kleissl" } ], "abstractNote": "Irradiance forecasts are fundamental to the prediction of power production from photovoltaic (PV) plants. Prediction is necessary to perform effective balancing of electricity demand and the variable and weather-dependent supply. Images from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites provide valuable information for forecasting clouds and solar irradiance several hours ahead using cloud-motion vectors (CMV). In this chapter we present our approach to deriving irradiance information from MSG images and to predicting the cloud situation by applying CMV. An evaluation of the irradiance forecast for single sites and regional averages on the basis of a 1 y dataset is presented. The CMV forecast shows superior performance in comparison to other methods such as numerical weather prediction (NWP) up to 5 h ahead. Additionally, an introduction to PV-power-prediction techniques is presented.", "bookTitle": "Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment", "series": "", "seriesNumber": "", "volume": "", "numberOfVolumes": "", "edition": "", "date": "2013", "publisher": "Academic Press", "place": "Boston", "originalDate": "", "originalPublisher": "", "originalPlace": "", "format": "", "pages": "267-297", "ISBN": "978-0-12-397177-7", "DOI": "", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780123971777000115", "accessDate": "2014-11-28T12:40:22Z", "ISSN": "", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "ECMWF", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Heliosat method", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Meteosat", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Satellite solar forecast", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "cloud-motion vector", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "regional forecast", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "solar elevation", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "validation", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "65NFB4H8", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/65NFB4H8", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/65NFB4H8", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Iziomon and Mayer", "parsedDate": "2001", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "65NFB4H8", "version": 1910, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Performance of solar radiation models—a case study", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "M. G.", "lastName": "Iziomon" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "H.", "lastName": "Mayer" } ], "abstractNote": "Performance of cloud-based (Kasten) and sunshine-based (Ångström–Prescott, Garg and Garg, Sivkov) empirical solar radiation models is presented for a lowland and mountain grassland sites. Data sets utilised for the study extended from 1991 to 1994. Adjustable parameters in the models were determined. Observed monthly mean values of solar radiation K↓ and those estimated using Kasten model agreed within 2.5% for the lowland site and 13% for the mountain site, while those estimated using Ångström–Prescott relation agreed with observation within 2.5% for lowland site and 3.4% for the mountain site. The incorporation of air mass, latitude and water vapour terms into Ångström–Prescott relation did not significantly improve estimates of K↓. In general, Ångström–Prescott as well as Garg and Garg models yielded the least RMSE (<0.047) for the study sites.", "publicationTitle": "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "décembre 7, 2001", "volume": "110", "issue": "1", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "1-11", "series": "", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Agricultural and Forest Meteorology", "DOI": "10.1016/S0168-1923(01)00281-7", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192301002817", "accessDate": "2014-12-18T04:13:08Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0168-1923", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Air mass", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Kasten model", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Solar Radiation", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Water vapour", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Ångström–Prescott model", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "33Q5ZWJG", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/33Q5ZWJG", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/33Q5ZWJG", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Hoff and Perez", "parsedDate": "2012", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "33Q5ZWJG", "version": 1910, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "Modeling PV fleet output variability", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Thomas E.", "lastName": "Hoff" }, { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Richard", "lastName": "Perez" } ], "abstractNote": "This paper introduces a novel approach to estimate the maximum short-term output variability that an arbitrary fleet of PV systems places on any considered power grid. The paper begins with a model that demonstrates that the maximum possible variability for N identical, uncorrelated PV systems equals the total installed capacity divided by 2 N . The paper then describes a general methodology that is applicable to arbitrary PV fleets. A key input to this generalized approach is the correlation, or absence thereof, existing between individual installations in the fleet at the considered variability time scale. In this respect, the article includes a presentation of new experimental evidence from hourly satellite-derived irradiances relating distance and fluctuation time scales in three geographic regions in the United States (Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Hawaii) and from recent high density network measurements that both confirm and extend conclusions from previous studies, namely: (1) correlation coefficients decrease predictably with increasing distance, (2) correlation coefficients decrease at a similar rate when evaluated versus distance divided by the considered variability time scale, and (3) the accuracy of results is improved by including an implied cloud speed term.", "publicationTitle": "Solar Energy", "publisher": "", "place": "", "date": "août 2012", "volume": "86", "issue": "8", "section": "", "partNumber": "", "partTitle": "", "pages": "2177-2189", "series": "Progress in Solar Energy 3", "seriesTitle": "", "seriesText": "", "journalAbbreviation": "Solar Energy", "DOI": "10.1016/j.solener.2011.11.005", "citationKey": "", "url": "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038092X11004154", "accessDate": "2014-11-28T12:37:25Z", "PMID": "", "PMCID": "", "ISSN": "0038-092X", "archive": "", "archiveLocation": "", "shortTitle": "", "language": "", "libraryCatalog": "ScienceDirect", "callNumber": "", "rights": "", "extra": "", "tags": [ { "tag": "Fluctuations", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Photovoltaics", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Power grid", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "Solar resource", "type": 1 }, { "tag": "variability", "type": 1 } ], "collections": [], "relations": {}, "dateAdded": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z", "dateModified": "2014-12-28T14:54:32Z" } }, { "key": "45BWRMTZ", "version": 1910, "library": { "type": "group", "id": 17506, "name": "biblio_voyant", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant", "type": "text/html" } } }, "links": { "self": { "href": "https://api.zotero.org/groups/17506/items/45BWRMTZ", "type": "application/json" }, "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/groups/biblio_voyant/items/45BWRMTZ", "type": "text/html" } }, "meta": { "createdByUser": { "id": 241221, "username": "cyri", "name": "", "links": { "alternate": { "href": "https://www.zotero.org/cyri", "type": "text/html" } } }, "creatorSummary": "Bird", "parsedDate": "1984", "numChildren": 2 }, "data": { "key": "45BWRMTZ", "version": 1910, "itemType": "journalArticle", "title": "A simple, solar spectral model for direct-normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance", "creators": [ { "creatorType": "author", "firstName": "Richard E.", "lastName": "Bird" } ], "abstractNote": "A spectral model for cloudless days that uses simple mathematical expressions and tabulated look-up tables to generate direct-normal and diffuse horizontal irradiance is presented. The model is based on modifications to previously published simple models and comparisons with rigorous radiative transfer codes. This model is expected to be more accurate than previous simple models and applicable to a broader range of atmospheric conditions. The primary significance of this model is its simplicity, which allows it to be used on small desk-top computers. 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